Weekly Analysis ( 2 Jan – 6 Jan 2023 )
Weekly Analysis ( 2 Jan – 6 Jan 2023 )
Time(GMT) |
CRY |
EVENT |
Monday |
||
01:45 |
CNY |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Dec) |
08:55 |
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) |
09:00 |
EUR |
EU Manufacturing PMI (Dec) |
Tuesday |
||
07:00 |
TRY |
Turkey CPI YoY (Dec) |
09:30 |
GBP |
UK Manufacturing PMI (Dec) |
14:45 |
USD |
US Manufacturing PMI (Dec) |
Wednesday |
||
09:00 |
EUR |
|
09:00 |
EUR |
EU Services PMI (Dec) |
15:00 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) |
15:00 |
USD |
JOLTS Job Openings (Nov) |
Thursday |
||
01:45 |
CNY |
Caixin Services PMI (Dec) |
09:30 |
GBP |
UK Composite PMI (Dec) |
09:30 |
GBP |
UK Services PMI (Dec) |
13:15 |
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
14.45 |
USD |
US Services PMI (Dec) |
Friday |
||
00:30 |
JPY |
Japan Services PMI (Dec) |
10:30 |
EUR |
EU CPI YoY (Dec) |
13:30 |
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) |
13:30 |
USD |
Participation Rate (Dec) |
13:30 |
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Dec) |
13:30 |
USD |
Factory Orders MoM (Nov) |
International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva made evaluations about the global economy in an interview with CBS television. Asked about the IMF's expectations for a recession in 2023, Georgieva said: "For much of the world economy, this will be a tougher year than we've had." gave the answer. Georgieva cited the slowdown in 3 major economies as the USA, European Union (EU) and China as the reason for this. Pointing out that the USA is the most resilient, Georgieva explained that the labor market in the country remains quite strong, the US economy can survive the recession, but this may force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher for a longer period to reduce inflation. The New York stock market closed the last trading day of this year, marked by aggressive interest rate hikes against high inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war and recession concerns, and recorded its worst annual performance since 2008. While the three main indices showed their first annual declines since 2018, the Dow Jones index fell 8.9%, the S&P 500 index 19.7% and the Nasdaq index fell 3.5% throughout 2022. Thus, indices recorded their biggest annual declines since the 2008 financial crisis. The commodity market left behind a year in which volatility increased and the wavelength in prices increased. With the effect of the war in Russia and Ukraine and rising energy prices, a record-breaking record was broken in commodity prices, especially in the first quarter of 2022. One of the most important reasons for this is that Russia is among the leading countries in the production of energy, agricultural commodities and metals, while rising energy costs and the sanctions imposed on Russia also played an important role in these increases. The barrel price of Brent oil, which exceeded the level of 139 dollars on March 7 due to the supply concerns caused by the Russia-Ukraine war in the markets, closed the year at the level of 84 dollars as the global recession concerns in the markets strengthened and demand concerns regained ground. Brent oil finished the year with an increase of 8.4%. Before the year ended, a decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin allowed "unfriendly" Western countries to pay their debts to Russian natural gas in foreign currencies such as dollars or euros. At the new week of the new year, we follow macro developments which will include PMIs from China, Japan, EU, UK & US. Also, the inflation from EU will be followed. Other important macro data are orderly, Turkey inflation data and US Nonfarm payrolls and factory orders. |