Chat with us, powered by LiveChatWeekly Analysis ( 30 Jan – 03 Feb 2023 )

Weekly Analysis ( 30 Jan – 03 Feb 2023 )

Weekly Analysis ( 30 Jan – 03 Feb 2023 )

Weekly Analysis ( 30 Jan – 03 Feb 2023 )

30 Jan – 03 Feb 2023

Time(GMT)

CRY

Event

Monday

09:00

EUR

German GDP

Tuesday

01:30

CNY

China Manufacturing PMI

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment %

13:00

EUR

German CPI

Wednesday

09:30

GBP

UK Manufacturing PMI

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI

15:00

USD

JOLTs Job Openings

19:00

USD

FED Interest Rate Decision

19:30

USD

FOMC Press Conference

Thursday

12:00

GBP

BoE Interest Rate Decision

13:15

EUR

ECB Interest Rate Decision

13:30

USD

US Initial Jobless Claims

15:15

EUR

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Friday

09:30

GBP

UK Composite PMI

13:30

USD

US Nonfarm Payrolls

13:30

USD

US Unemployment Rate

15:00

USD

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

This week promises to be busy with three major central banks holding meetings and three leading US companies announcing earnings. The Fed is predicted to reduce the speed of its interest rate increases, while the ECB and BOE are expected to raise rates by 50 basis points. The US employment report on Friday will also be closely watched, and Chinese markets will resume trading after the Lunar New Year break.

Investors will keep a close eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-policy meeting press conference to gauge further rate hike projections and potential pause considerations by officials.

This week's economic calendar highlights include the December job openings report on Wednesday and Eurozone CPI. In addition, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet, three of the top four largest US companies by market value, are set to announce their earnings results on Thursday.
The market expects 50 basis point rate hike to 3% by the ECB at Thursday's meeting, but the future trajectory is uncertain. Investors will look for clues on the extent and pace of future hikes.

President Lagarde is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, as core inflation persists at high levels, despite increasing disagreement among policymakers, with some more dovish voices citing a recent drop in inflation from record highs.

The Bank of England, which was the first central bank to raise interest rates, is expected to announce its 10th hike on Thursday. The predicted increase is 50 basis points, bringing the rate to 4%. Despite a decrease in inflation to 10.5% in December, it's still higher than the Bank's target and wages continue to grow rapidly.

Investors will closely monitor signals from policymakers regarding the completion of their tightening cycle. Currently, financial markets anticipate one more interest rate increase of 25 basis points in March, bringing the Bank Rate to a high of 4.25%.

After a week-long break for the Lunar New Year, China's financial markets resume trading this week. Over the holiday, domestic travel saw a 74% increase compared to last year due to the lifting of COVID restrictions, according to state media reports. The latest data shows a sharp decrease of 80% in COVID fatalities from the recent peak.

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