Weekly Analysis (13-17 May)

Time	Currency	Event
Monday
13:00	USD	Fed Jefferson Speech
13:00	USD	Fed Mester Speech
Tuesday
06:00	EUR	Inflation Rate
06:00	GBP	Unemployment Rate
06:00	GBP	Average Earnings incl. Bonus
09:00	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment
12:30	USD	PPI
13:10	USD	Fed Cook Speech
14:00	USD	Fed Chair Powell Speech
Wednesday
09:00	EUR	GDP Growth Rate QoQ
12:30	USD	Inflation Rate
12:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing
14:30	USD	EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
16:00	USD	Fed Kashkari Speech
17:00	USD	Fed Bowman Speech
23:50	JPY	GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel
Thursday
12:30	USD	Building Permits Prel
12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims
12:30	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
13:15	USD	Industrial Production MoM
14-17:50	USD	Fed Members Speeches
Friday
02:00	CNY	Industrial Production YoY
02:00	CNY	Retail Sales YoY
02:00	CNY	Unemployment Rate
09:00	EUR	Inflation Rate YoY Final
14:15	USD	Fed Waller Speech

In the US, investors are keenly awaiting the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. It is projected to show a 0.3% rise from March, slightly below the previous month's 0.4% increase. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is similarly expected to rise by 0.3%. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April is forecasted to also increase by 0.2% for both headline and core measures, mirroring the rise seen in March. Other critical data points include retail sales, expected to show a moderate 0.4% growth, along with updates on industrial production, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, business inventories, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, housing starts, and building permits.

Attention will also be directed towards Federal Reserve officials' statements, particularly Chair Powell's speech at the Foreign Bankers' Association Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam, for any hints on potential interest rate cuts.

In Europe, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany is poised to rise for the tenth consecutive month. Conversely, consumer confidence in Switzerland is expected to fall. The Eurozone's economy is projected to confirm a 0.3% growth for the first quarter of 2024, marking its fastest expansion since the third quarter of 2022. Additional economic insights will come from preliminary GDP estimates for the Netherlands, Poland, and Russia, and updates on industrial production across the Euro Area, which is expected to decline following a February rebound. Final inflation figures for the Eurozone, Germany, France, and Italy will also be released, with initial estimates suggesting stable rates for the Eurozone and Germany, but declines in France and Italy. In the UK, the job market report is expected to show an unemployment rate increase to 4.3% for the first quarter, alongside a slowdown in wage growth.

For China, key economic indicators due in the coming week include data on industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and housing prices for April. These figures follow mixed economic signals from the first quarter and could influence the extent of new economic measures recently promised by the Politburo. In Japan, first-quarter GDP estimates are likely to show a contraction, intensifying concerns as the Bank of Japan remains reluctant to adopt a more hawkish policy stance. Meanwhile, India is set to report an April inflation rate within the Reserve Bank of India's target range and update trade balances alongside Indonesia and Singapore. In Australia, the focus will be on the National Australia Bank's business confidence index for April and upcoming labor market statistics.