Weekly Analysis (13-17 May)
Time | Currency | Event |
Monday | ||
13:00 | USD | Fed Jefferson Speech |
13:00 | USD | Fed Mester Speech |
Tuesday | ||
06:00 | EUR | Inflation Rate |
06:00 | GBP | Unemployment Rate |
06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings incl. Bonus |
09:00 | EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment |
12:30 | USD | PPI |
13:10 | USD | Fed Cook Speech |
14:00 | USD | Fed Chair Powell Speech |
Wednesday | ||
09:00 | EUR | GDP Growth Rate QoQ |
12:30 | USD | Inflation Rate |
12:30 | USD | NY Empire State Manufacturing |
14:30 | USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change |
16:00 | USD | Fed Kashkari Speech |
17:00 | USD | Fed Bowman Speech |
23:50 | JPY | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel |
Thursday | ||
12:30 | USD | Building Permits Prel |
12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims |
12:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing |
13:15 | USD | Industrial Production MoM |
14-17:50 | USD | Fed Members Speeches |
Friday | ||
02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production YoY |
02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales YoY |
02:00 | CNY | Unemployment Rate |
09:00 | EUR | Inflation Rate YoY Final |
14:15 | USD | Fed Waller Speech |
In the US, investors are keenly awaiting the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. It is projected to show a 0.3% rise from March, slightly below the previous month's 0.4% increase. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is similarly expected to rise by 0.3%. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April is forecasted to also increase by 0.2% for both headline and core measures, mirroring the rise seen in March. Other critical data points include retail sales, expected to show a moderate 0.4% growth, along with updates on industrial production, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, business inventories, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, housing starts, and building permits.
Attention will also be directed towards Federal Reserve officials' statements, particularly Chair Powell's speech at the Foreign Bankers' Association Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam, for any hints on potential interest rate cuts.
In Europe, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany is poised to rise for the tenth consecutive month. Conversely, consumer confidence in Switzerland is expected to fall. The Eurozone's economy is projected to confirm a 0.3% growth for the first quarter of 2024, marking its fastest expansion since the third quarter of 2022. Additional economic insights will come from preliminary GDP estimates for the Netherlands, Poland, and Russia, and updates on industrial production across the Euro Area, which is expected to decline following a February rebound. Final inflation figures for the Eurozone, Germany, France, and Italy will also be released, with initial estimates suggesting stable rates for the Eurozone and Germany, but declines in France and Italy. In the UK, the job market report is expected to show an unemployment rate increase to 4.3% for the first quarter, alongside a slowdown in wage growth.
For China, key economic indicators due in the coming week include data on industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and housing prices for April. These figures follow mixed economic signals from the first quarter and could influence the extent of new economic measures recently promised by the Politburo. In Japan, first-quarter GDP estimates are likely to show a contraction, intensifying concerns as the Bank of Japan remains reluctant to adopt a more hawkish policy stance. Meanwhile, India is set to report an April inflation rate within the Reserve Bank of India's target range and update trade balances alongside Indonesia and Singapore. In Australia, the focus will be on the National Australia Bank's business confidence index for April and upcoming labor market statistics.