Weekly Analysis (20-24 May)

Time	Currency	Event
Monday
12:45	USD	Fed Bostic Speech
13:00	USD	Fed Barr Speech
13:00	USD	Fed Waller Speech
14:00	USD	Fed Jefferson Speech
23:00	USD	Fed Bostic Speech
Tuesday
12:30	AUD	Westpac Consumer Confidence
01:30	AUD	RBA Meeting Minutes
12:30	CAD	Inflation Rate
13:00 - 23:00	USD	Fed Members’ Speeches
23:50	JPY	Balance of Trade
Wednesday
06:00	GBP	Inflation Rate
14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales
14:30	USD	EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
18:00	USD	FOMC Minutes
23:50	AUD	Judo Bank Manufacturing PMIs
Thursday
00:30	USD	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMIs
07:30	EUR	HCOB Manufacturing PMIs Ger
08:00	EUR	HCOB Composite PMIs EA
08:30	GBP	S&P Global PMIs
13:45	USD	S&P Global PMIs
23:30	JPY	Inflation Rate
Friday
06:00	EUR	GDP Growth Rate Final
06:00	GBP	Retail Sales
12:30	USA	Durable Goods Orders
14:00	EUR	Inflation Rate YoY Final
14:15	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final May

This week is set to be relatively calm in the United States, with the market's attention focused on the release of the FOMC minutes and several appearances by Federal Reserve officials. Traders are on the lookout for any indications of when the Fed might start to cut interest rates. This comes at a time when economic data suggests a slight cooling in the economy, yet persistent price pressures and comments from several officials suggest that borrowing costs could remain high for an extended period.

On the economic data front, notable releases include S&P Global PMIs, durable goods orders, and the final readings of the Michigan consumer sentiment index. Durable goods orders are expected to rise for the third consecutive month, albeit at a slower pace. Additionally, existing and new home sales, which are expected to decline, will be closely monitored by investors. In Canada, updates on inflation and retail sales will also be important.

Turning to the United Kingdom, the economic calendar is packed with key indicators including inflation, retail sales, public sector net borrowing, GfK consumer confidence, and CBI factory orders. Annual inflation is expected to slow to 2.1% in April, the lowest since June 2021 and close to the Bank of England's target. Core inflation is also forecast to decrease to 3.7%, the lowest since October 2021. Retail sales are anticipated to fall for the first time in four months. Preliminary PMI surveys are likely to reflect ongoing growth in the service sector and a reduced contraction in manufacturing.

In Europe, flash PMI data for the Eurozone, Germany, and France will be released, with the service sector expected to expand faster and manufacturing to contract less. Eurozone consumer confidence is projected to rise to its highest level since February 2022. Germany is also expected to report a rise in producer prices for the second consecutive month in April, though at a reduced rate.

In Asia, investors are keenly observing China's major initiatives to stimulate its economy, including plans to purchase unsold homes to support its troubled property market. Despite the People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintaining its loan prime rates to bolster the yuan, these measures are seen as vital given the small fraction of funding relative to China’s housing inventory. In Japan, the CPI for April is expected to indicate a further easing in underlying inflation, while the trade deficit for April should narrow, and machinery orders for March are predicted to decline. In Australia, forward-looking indicators such as May’s Westpac consumer sentiment index and PMI prints are due, along with the release of minutes from the last RBA meeting.