Weekly Agenda ( Oct 31 - 04 Nov 2022 )
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Time (GMT+3) |
Event |
Currency |
Survey |
Previous |
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Monday, October 31 |
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02:50 |
Japan Industrial Production (YoY)(Sep) |
JPY |
%8.7 |
%5.8 |
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04:00 |
China Non-Manufacturing PMI(Oct) |
CNY |
51.9 |
50.6 |
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04:00 |
China NBS Manufacturing PMI(Oct) |
CNY |
50.0 |
50.1 |
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10:00 |
Germany Retail Sales (YoY)(Sep) |
EUR |
-%0.4 |
-%4.3 |
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13:00 |
EU Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)(Q3) |
EUR |
%2.1 |
%4.1 |
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13:00 |
EU Inflation (YoY) (Oct) |
EUR |
%10.3 |
%9.9 |
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13:00 |
EU Core inflation (YoY) (Oct) |
EUR |
%4.9 |
%4.8 |
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16:45 |
US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index(Oct) |
USD |
47.1 |
45.7 |
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Tuesday, November 1 |
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04:45 |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) |
CNY |
49.0 |
48.1 |
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06:30 |
Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision |
AUD |
%2.85 |
%2.60 |
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12:30 |
UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI(Oct) |
GBP |
45.8 |
45.8 |
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17:00 |
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) |
USD |
50.0 |
50.9 |
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Wednesday, November 2 |
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02:50 |
Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
JPY |
REPORT |
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11:55 |
Germany Unemployment Rate (Oct) |
EUR |
%5.50 |
%5.50 |
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15:15 |
US ADP Employment Change(Oct) |
USD |
198K |
208K |
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21:00 |
US FED Interest Rate Decision |
USD |
%4.00 |
%3.25 |
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21:30 |
US FOMC Press Conference |
USD |
SPEECH |
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Thursday, November 3 |
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04:45 |
Caixin Services PMI (Oct) |
CNY |
49.0 |
49.3 |
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10:00 |
Turkey inflation (YoY) (Oct) |
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%85.60 |
%83.45 |
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13:00 |
EU Unemployment Rate(Sep) |
EUR |
%6.60 |
%6.60 |
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15:00 |
BoE Interest Rate Decision |
GBP |
%3.00 |
%2.25 |
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15:30 |
BoE's Governor Bailey speech |
GBP |
SPEECH |
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15:30 |
US Initial Jobless Claims(Oct 28) |
USD |
215K |
217K |
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17:00 |
US ISM Services PMI(Oct) |
USD |
55.2 |
56.7 |
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Friday, November 4 |
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12:00 |
EU S&P Global Composite PMI(Oct) |
EUR |
47.1 |
47.1 |
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15:15 |
BoE’s Pill Speech |
GBP |
SPEECH |
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15:30 |
US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Oct) |
USD |
%4.7 |
%5.0 |
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15:30 |
US Nonfarm Payrolls(Oct) |
USD |
220K |
263K |
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15:30 |
US Unemployment Rate (Oct) |
USD |
%3.6 |
%3.5 |
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15:30 |
Canada Unemployment Rate (Oct) |
CAD |
%5.3 |
%5.2 |
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Last week, Rishi Sunak became new UK Prime Minister after Liz Truss resigned and he hold Jeremy Hunt as Finance Minister. Also, the new Budget is delayed to November 17 from October 31. Thus, the pound recovered itself since policy situation stabilized. Yet, there are some expectations of some spending cuts and tax hikes to reactivate fiscal policy in UK. Additionally, this week Bank of England have a policy rate decision on Thursday at 15:00 (GMT+3). Markets forecast a 75bps rate hike which would make the cash rate to %3.00, but still eyes will be on Rishi’s Budget plan.
In addition, FED will have interest rate decision on Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+3). It is widely expected to hike 75bps which will be the fourth 75bps rate hike. The real question is that FED will make a possible downshift in its rate-hike pace for December meeting. In other words, FED will pause the aggressive rate hike or not. According the CME FedWatch Tool, FED target rate probabilities for this week reached %81 for a 75bps rate hike vs 50bps rate hike in December with the probability of %47. Furthermore, this week the investors will follow the nonfarm payroll data closely. The strong labor market is still expected for October close to 220K (previously 263K).
Besides, the inflation data will release in Eurozone on Monday. It is expected to rise %10.3 YoY in October. Also, the core inflation is forecasted %4.9 YoY in October. Last week, The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 75bps during its October meeting as expected. The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 2.00%, 2.25% and 1.50% respectively, with effect from 2 November 2022. At the same time, the ECB changed the terms and conditions of the third series of TLTRO III, by adjusting the interest rates applicable from 23 November 2022, and offering banks additional voluntary early repayment dates.
What else, Turkey will announce the October inflation data on Thursday. The CPI came %83.45 in September which is the highest rate since July of 1998, but CBRT (Turkish Central Bank) continue to decrease interest rate. The last decision made by 150bps rate decrease, policy rate %10.50.
On the data front, the October inflation for Eurozone on Monday. Then, Central Banks rate decision will be followed closely from RBA, FED and BoE.