Weekly Analysis (17 - 21 June)
| Time | Currency | Event |
| Monday | ||
| 2:00 | CNY | Industrial Production YoY |
| 2:00 | CNY | Retail Sales YoY |
| 12:30 | USD | NY Empire State Manufacturing |
| 17:30 | USD | Fed Harker Speech |
| Tuesday | ||
| 0:10 | AUD | RBA Connolly Speech |
| 4:30 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision |
| 5:30 | AUD | RBA Press Conference |
| 9:00 | USD | Inflation Rate YoY Final |
| 9:00 | EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index |
| 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales MoM |
| 14:00 - 18:00 | USD | Fed Members Speeches |
| 23:50 | JPY | Balance of Trade |
| 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
| Wednesday | ||
| 6:00 | GBP | Inflation Rate YoY |
| 14:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index |
| 17:30 | CAD | BoC Summary of Deliberations |
| Thursday | ||
| 1:15 | CNY | Loan Prime Rate 1Y - 5Y |
| 1:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate |
| 6:00 | EUR | PPI YoY |
| 12:30 | USD | Building Permits Prel |
| 12:30 | EUR | Balance of Trade |
| 12:30 | USD | Philedelphia Fed Manufacturing |
| 14:00 | EUR | Consumer Confidence Flash |
| 23:00 | AUD | Judo Bank PMI |
| 23:30 | JPY | Inflation Rate YoY |
| Friday | ||
| 0:30 | USD | Jibun Bank PMI |
| 6:00 | GBP | HCOB PMI |
| 8:30 | GBP | S&P Global PMI |
| 13:45 | EUR | S&P Global PMI |
The upcoming week in the US will be shortened due to the Juneteenth Day holiday on Wednesday, impacting market activities and economic data releases. Despite the holiday, the focus will remain on the Federal Reserve as officials provide insights into future monetary policies. Recent statements suggest a cautious approach towards rate cuts, with the Fed signaling only one potential reduction this year, despite market expectations and some economic indicators suggesting room for more aggressive cuts.
Retail sales are anticipated to show a modest rebound of 0.3%, and industrial production is expected to rise by 0.2%, indicating some recovery from previous stagnation. Additionally, the S&P Global flash PMIs will offer early insights into June's economic activity, with expectations of slowed growth in both manufacturing and services sectors. The housing market will also be in the spotlight with data on building permits, housing starts, and existing home sales due for release.
In the UK, the Bank of England is likely to maintain interest rates at 5.25%, with more members possibly favoring a rate cut as inflation meets the target at 2%. Across Europe, central banks, including the Swiss National Bank, will announce their monetary policy decisions. Economic sentiment in the Euro Area is expected to improve, continuing a five-month trend, supported by positive developments in consumer confidence and business morale.
China will release a series of economic data for May, providing insights into the necessary economic support to counteract a slowdown. Expected reports include retail sales, industrial production, and updates on the housing market, crucial for assessing the health of the world’s second-largest economy. In Japan, the focus will be on the Bank of Japan’s minutes from its latest meeting, alongside new economic forecasts including inflation and trade balance data. Australia anticipates a steady policy rate from the RBA, with updates on June PMIs shortly after.
Market participants will digest these data points and central bank communications to gauge the potential direction of monetary policies and their implications on global financial markets. The anticipation of rate cuts, despite a cautious stance from the Fed, continues to influence investor strategies and market dynamics.