Weekly Analysis (9-13 Sept)

Next week will provide insights into potential central bank rate cuts, as several important data releases are scheduled.

In the US, following the high PCE data from two weeks ago, inflation figures will be awaited on Wednesday. Attention will shift to unemployment data on Thursday to assess the current state of the increasingly weakening labor market observed in recent reports. The key question for the market will be whether these data support the Fed's decision to cut rates due to inflation moving towards target levels and a weakening labor market.

Past weeks in Europe have seen declining inflation data and high PMI figures, shaping expectations for a potential rate cut. Additionally, Germany's inflation data, scheduled for release on Tuesday, may provide further clues about this decision. The interest rate decision on Thursday is expected to bring significant volatility to the EUR/USD pair.

In the UK, growth data will be released on Wednesday, where a slower rate-cutting cycle is expected. The market will closely watch whether this data supports those expectations.

GDP data that could influence the Bank of Japan's anticipated rate hike later this year will be released in Japan. With rising wages and high inflation contrasting with weak manufacturing PMI figures, the BoJ's decision remains uncertain. The upcoming data, scheduled for release on Sunday night, is expected to provide insights into the BoJ's future policy direction.