Daily Analysis UKOIL 1 May 2023

Oil prices fell on Monday due to concerns over the economic impact of a potential interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and weaker Chinese manufacturing data. These factors outweighed support from new OPEC+ supply cuts taking effect this month. The Fed, which meets on May 2-3, is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This caused the US dollar to rise against a basket of currencies, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Brent crude fell by $1.21, or 1.5%, to $79.12 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 96 cents, or 1.3%, to trade at $75.82.

In the coming week, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to extend its rate hike pause on Tuesday, while the European Central Bank may surprise with a half-point increase on Thursday. Weak economic data from China also weighed on oil prices. China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) declined to 49.2 from 51.9 in March, falling below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction in activity on a monthly basis.

Support: 80.80 – 79.00 – 77.00        Resistance: 83.60 – 85.00 – 86.40