Daily Analysis EURUSD - 15 June 2023

The EUR/USD continued its upward trajectory, achieving its highest daily close in a month above 1.0800, despite the US Dollar's rebound following the hawkish stance of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Market attention now shifts towards the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and forthcoming US data, which have gained significance considering Fed Chair Powell's statement that the July meeting will be a 'live' one.

On Thursday, the ECB's Governing Council will convene, with expectations of a 25 basis points interest rate hike. The crucial factors for the Euro's performance will be the language used in the statement and the comments made by ECB President Lagarde during the subsequent press conference. President Lagarde is likely to reiterate their intention to continue raising rates. However, if the meeting takes on a 'dovish' tone, suggesting a potential pause in rate hikes, the Euro could experience downward pressure.

After the Fed meeting, the US dollar staged a recovery as the central bank chose to keep interest rates unchanged but signaled a willingness to pursue further rate hikes. The hawkish stance had an impact on Treasury bonds, leading to their decline, and bolstered the strength of the greenback. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remark that the July meeting would be a "live meeting" indicated that additional rate hikes remained a possibility. According to the projections released by the FOMC, a majority of its members foresee a total tightening of 50 basis points by the end of the year.

In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair encountered resistance around 1.0860, slightly above the 200MA level of 1.0850. The overall market sentiment remains bearish as the price remains within a bearish channel. However, the upcoming ECB meeting could potentially alter this outlook. If there is a breakout above the current resistance level, the next potential resistance levels to watch are 1.0900 and 1.0950.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0945	1.0900	1.0860	1.0780	1.0740	1.0700