Daily Analysis EURUSD - 1 Sep 2023

US Nonfarm Payrolls for August are expected to rise by 170K, down from July's 187K. This could impact future Fed policy decisions. The US Unemployment Rate is likely to remain steady at 3.5%. Traders have reduced the odds of a final interest-rate hike by the Fed this year due to a drop in US job openings. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium hinted at another rate hike this year, boosting the US Dollar. However, the probability of a November rate hike has dropped to 40% after disappointing job data.

The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report for August will be crucial for assessing labor market conditions. It's expected to show a gain of 170K jobs, with a steady 3.5% Unemployment Rate. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 4.4% annually.

The release of the Nonfarm Payrolls data at 12:30 GMT will impact the EUR/USD pair. A strong NFP print and wage inflation could support the US Dollar, pushing EUR/USD lower. Conversely, weaker data could lead to a rebound in EUR/USD.

The EURUSD continued to rise until 1.0947, where the 100-day moving average (100MA) acted as a resistance level. Today, the pair is awaiting data from both economies. The next resistance level could be around 1.1000, and the support is at 1.0850. Daily, the pair is influenced by the 200-day moving average (200MA) as support and the 100MA as resistance. Any breakout beyond either of these levels could lead to a significant movement in the pair.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700