China-US and Taiwan

In assessing the situation, investors need to consider the inherently unpredictable nature of geopolitics. Some things that look improbable one day, can happen the next. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has said he believes there is a 30% chance of a war between the U.S. and China in the coming years. Taiwan is the likeliest trigger for the hostilities, he said.

A military conflict over Taiwan could take all of Taiwan Semiconductor’s production offline and would have disastrous effects across the technology supply chain for those companies. In an interview with CNN on Sunday, TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said there would be no winners in a conflict. It will be a “destruction of the world based order,” he said. “The geopolitical landscape would be totally changed.” He added that if any military tried to take over the company by force it would no longer be operable because it needs a real-time connection to outside suppliers.