Daily Analysis EURUSD - 4 Aug 2023

Germany's June exports and imports were below expectations, with imports dropping by 3.4% and exports rising only by 0.1%. Both figures contributed to negative annual rates. On Friday, Germany will report factory orders. In the Eurozone, the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.4% in June, surpassing the expected slide of 0.2%, and the annual rate reached -3.4%. Eurozone Retail Sales data for June is also due to be released.

Regarding the US data released on Thursday, initial Jobless Claims rose to 227,000 for the week ending July 29, as expected. Q2 Unit Labor Costs rose at a rate of 1.6%, which is below the expected 2.6%, and Q1 was revised from 4.2% to 3.3%. On the positive side, factory orders rose by 2.3% in June, aligning with expectations. However, the ISM Services PMI declined from 53.9 to 52.7, falling short of the estimated 53. The market's reaction to these numbers was limited, as the focus is set on Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which are expected to show an increase of 200,000.

The EUR/USD is currently at the 100MA on the Daily chart, finding support while waiting for today's nonfarm payroll data. The next support, if the selloff continues, will be at the historical level of 1.0850. Conversely, if a correction happens, then the next resistance level will be at 1.1000.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850