Weekly Agenda ( 14 Nov - 18 Nov 2022 )
Time (GMT+3) | Event | Currency | Survey | Previous | |||
Monday, October 31 | |||||||
00:30 | FED’s Waller Speech | USD | SPEECH | ||||
19:15 | ECB’s De Guindos Speech | EUR | SPEECH | ||||
19:30 | FED’s Brainard Speech | USD | SPEECH | ||||
Tuesday, November 1 | |||||||
02:50 | Japan GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q3) | JPY | %1.10 | %3.50 | |||
03:30 | RBA Meeting Minutes | AUD | REPORT | ||||
05:00 | China Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) | CNY | %5.20 | %6.30 | |||
05:00 | China Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) | CNY | %1.00 | %2.50 | |||
07:30 | Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) | JPY | %9.80 | %9.80 | |||
10:00 | UK Unemployment Rate (Sep) | GBP | %3.50 | %3.50 | |||
13:00 | EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Nov) | EUR | -57.2 | -59.7 | |||
13:00 | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Nov) | EUR | -50.0 | -59.2 | |||
16:30 | US Producer Price Index (YoY) (Oct) | USD | %7.2 | %7.2 | |||
Wednesday, November 2 | |||||||
10:00 | UK Inflation (YoY) (Oct) | GBP | %10.60 | %10.10 | |||
10:00 | UK Core Inflation (YoY) (Oct) | GBP | %6.40 | %6.50 | |||
16:30 | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) | USD | %0.90 | %0.0 | |||
16:30 | BoC Core Inflation (YoY) (Oct) | CAD | %6.30 | %6.00 | |||
18:00 | ECB’s Lagarde Speech | EUR | SPEECH | ||||
20:35 | FED’s Waller Speech | USD | SPEECH | ||||
Thursday, November 3 | |||||||
13:00 | EU Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Oct) | EUR | %5.00 | %5.00 | |||
16:30 | US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(Nov) ) | USD | -8.20 | -8.70 | |||
16:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims(Nov 11) | USD | 220K | 225K | |||
18:40 | FED’s Jefferson speech | USD | SPEECH | ||||
Friday, November 4 | |||||||
02:30 | Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Oct) | JPY | %2.70 | %3.00 | |||
02:30 | Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)(Oct) | JPY | %1.90 | %1.80 | |||
13:00 | UK Retail Sales (YoY)(Oct) | GBP | -%6.5 | -%6.9 | |||
11:30 | ECB’s Lagarde Speech | EUR | SPEECH | ||||
Last week, US inflation data released below than expected with %7.70 year-on-year (YoY) in October which is the lowest level since January. Also, US core inflation came less %6.30 YoY after rising at a 40-year high %6.60 in September. Hence, the market expects that FED would slow the pace of its interest rate hikes. In addition, the Dollar Index (DXY) started the correction and US treasury yields are in free fall. US 10-year treasury yield plunged to %3.81 level while US 2-year treasury yield was last seen at %4.33. Markets lowered their terminal rate projections back under %5.00. In other words, the weaker than expected inflation data led the market to turn risk on mode. The investors reprice the FED’s policy path. Thus, the CME FedWatch tool shows 50bps rate hike in December FOMC meeting with a %80 probability. Regarding February meeting, markets are pricing in over 53% chance of a 25bps hike to 4.50-4.75%
This week, the investors follow the most important economic releases in the U.S. that include retail sales, producer prices, and housing data. What is more, the eyes will be on the Budget in UK. The UK Chancellor Hunt will announce the Autumn Budget on Thursday that will likely point to sharp spending cuts and tax increases to fill the £50billion fiscal hole in the UK public finances. Also, UK’s economic calendar will be filled with inflation, unemployment and retail sales data. UK inflation was lastly released at %10.1 which was 40-year high level due to fact that energy prices increased.
Furthermore, the investors follow the Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. In addition, Eurostat will release the final estimate of Q3 GDP and inflation rate for Euro Zone as well as balance of trade, industrial and construction output; and wholesale prices.
On the data front, the third quarter GDP figures will be announcing in Japan, followed by the inflation rate and balance of trade for October. The Japanese economy is expected to have grown %1.10 YoY in Q3. In the meantime, China will release industrial production and retail sales data for October. In Australia, minutes from the RBA’s November meeting should give more insights on the course of monetary policy after the central bank delivered lower-than-expected 25bps rate hike.