25 - 29 March Weekly Analysis

In the Americas, attention centers on the United States, where financial markets and policymakers are keenly awaiting insights from Federal Reserve officials. A spotlight is on Chief Jerome Powell's remarks set for Friday, alongside crucial economic indicators such as the PCE price indexes, personal income and outlays, and orders for durable goods. February is expected to see a 0.4% increase in PCE prices, a modest rise from January's 0.3%, with core prices projected to grow at a slightly slower rate of 0.3%. Consumer spending and income are both anticipated to rise by 0.4%. Moreover, a rebound of 1.3% is forecasted for durable goods orders in February, following a significant drop since April 2020. The final estimate of the Q4 GDP, corporate profits, and the Michigan consumer sentiment index, along with key regional economic indicators and housing data, are also on the radar. In Canada, the focus will be on the release of its monthly GDP figures. The US stock market will observe the Good Friday holiday with a closure on Friday.
In Europe, the Easter break means lighter economic data activity, with markets closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday. Nonetheless, investors are looking forward to the preliminary March inflation figures for Spain, France, and Italy, with expectations of varying inflation trends across these countries. Additional data points include the Euro Area's economic business sentiment and final consumer confidence, Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence, retail sales, and unemployment rate, Spain's final GDP growth estimates, France's consumer confidence, and Italy's business and consumer confidence. The UK will highlight the final Q4 GDP growth figures, business investment, and the current account.
Asia and Australia anticipate a quieter week, with a focus on China's industrial profits amid speculation on potential stimulus measures and currency valuation adjustments. Japan's financial community is eager for insights from the BoJ's last meeting and the Summary of Opinions, particularly following its historic interest rate hike, with additional data including the unemployment rate, industrial production, and retail sales for February. In Australia, inflation for February is expected to rise, with the market also awaiting the Westpac consumer confidence gauges, reflecting a broad spectrum of economic activities and indicators across these regions.