Weekly Analysis (4 - 8 March)

Time	Currency	Event
Monday
16:00	USD	Fed Harker Speech President
22:00	AUD	Judo Bank Services PMI Final
Tuesday
09:00	EUR	HCOB Services PMI Final
09:30	GBP	S&P Global Services PMI Final
15:00	USD	ISM Services PMI
17:00	USD	Fed Barr Speech
Wednesday
12:30	AUD	GDP Growth Rate QoQ
14:45	CAD	BoC Interest Rate Decision
15:00	CAD	Ivey PMI
15:00	USD	Fed Chair Powell Testimony
15:00	USD	JOLTs Job Openings
Thursday
00:30	AUD	Balance of Trade
03:00	CNY	Balance of Trade
13:15	JPY	ECB Interest Rate Decision
13:45	EUR	ECB Press Conference
15:00	USD	Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Friday
10:00	EUR	GDP Growth Rate QoQ
13:30	CNY	Unemployment Rate
13:30	USD	Non Farm Payrolls
13:30	USD	Unemployment Rate

In the United States, attention will be focused on the January jobs data and a series of speeches by Federal Reserve officials, including a two-day testimony by Fed Chair Powell before Congress regarding monetary policy. February's non-farm payrolls are expected to show an increase of 188,000, marking a significant decrease from the 353,000 jobs added in January. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 3.7%, with monthly wage growth slowing to 0.2% from the previous 0.6%. The ISM report for February is likely to indicate that growth in the country's service sector has stabilized, matching January's four-month high. Additionally, January's JOLTs job openings are expected to decrease to 8.9 million, following two months of increases. Other important data releases include the ADP employment change, factory orders, and foreign trade. In Canada, the Bank of Canada is predicted to maintain interest rates for the fifth consecutive period due to ongoing inflation outlook risks. Key Canadian metrics such as employment figures, trade balance, and the Ivey PMI will also be closely watched.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to keep interest rates steady, following higher-than-expected inflation, which underscores a cautious monetary policy approach. The Euro Area's retail sales are expected to see a slight increase after experiencing the largest drop in a year. In Germany, factory orders may decline by 6%, though industrial production is forecasted to rebound after four months of declines. Switzerland's annual inflation rate is projected to fall to 1.1%, the lowest since September 2021. Other key data include the Euro Area's final Q4 GDP, Germany's trade balance and producer prices, and Italy's final Q4 GDP data. In the UK, Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt's pre-election budget is expected to feature tax cuts to address the nation's £2.5 trillion debt, with additional releases including the BRC retail sales monitor, Halifax house prices, and final S&P PMI figures.

In Asia, the National People's Congress in China will begin on Tuesday, with the market eagerly awaiting announcements on new stimulus measures, efforts to boost consumer demand, and regulatory actions to stabilize the equity market. The trade balance for the first two months will be a focal point, with slight improvements expected in both exports and imports. The Caixin Services PMI will also be monitored. Japan is set to release its January current account, while Australia will spotlight the fourth-quarter GDP release, with expectations of steady growth. Additional Australian data to watch include the trade balance, home credit, and building permits for January.