Daily Analysis EURUSD - 18 July 2023

The Census Bureau is scheduled to release retail sales data in the United States (US) on Tuesday, July 18th. Economists anticipate that the headline Retail Sales figure for June will demonstrate another increase, building on the unexpected rise observed in May. It is worth noting that the Retail Sales data is adjusted for seasonality but does not account for inflation.

The US Retail Sales report has the potential to significantly impact the expectations for the Fed's interest rates, which, in turn, can affect the valuation of the US Dollar. This impact is particularly significant this week, as there is a lack of high-impact US economic data, and the Fed's 'blackout period' has commenced prior to the July 25-26 FOMC meeting.

Economists predict that auto sales will contribute to the overall increase in retail volume last month. Additionally, the rapid growth in sales at bars and restaurants is expected to bolster the headline retail sales figure. However, there is a downside risk posed by slowing fuel sales.

The EUR/USD is currently attempting to either correct or break out beyond the 1.1250 level in order to advance towards the next target of 1.1300.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1400	1.1300	1.1250	1.1200	1.1500	1.1000