Weekly Analysis (09 - 13 Oct)

 

Monday
10:00	USD	IMF Meetings
Tuesday
08:30	GBP	abour Productivity (Q2)
12:00	EUR	ECB President Lagarde Speaks
13:30	USD	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
16:30	EUR	German Buba Balz Speaks
17:00	USD	Fed Waller Speaks
19:00	USD	FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
22:00	USD	FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Wednesday
06:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Sep)
08:00	CNY	New Loans
08:15	USD	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
09:00	EUR	German Buba Mauderer Speaks
11:00	USD	MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
12:30	USD	PPI (MoM) (Sep)
18:00	USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday
06:00	GBP	GDP (MoM) (Aug)
08:00	USD	IEA Monthly Report
08:30	GBP	BOE Credit Conditions Survey
11:00	USD	OPEC Monthly Report
11:30	EUR	ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
12:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims
15:00	USD	Crude Oil Inventories
Friday
01:30	CNY	CPI (YoY) (Sep)
05:45	EUR	German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
13:00	USD	FOMC Member Harker Speaks
13:00	EUR	ECB President Lagarde Speaks
14:00	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)

FOMC Minutes: In September, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to maintain interest rates at 5.25-5.50%. They upgraded the economy's description to "solid" from "moderate" and acknowledged slower job gains. Despite this, they view job gains as robust and hold concerns about high inflation and low unemployment. Economic forecasts raised expectations for real GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 while lowering unemployment projections. Inflation projections stand at 3.3% in 2023, 2.5% in 2024, and 2.2% in 2025 (headline PCE). Core inflation is projected at 2.6% in 2023, 2.6% in 2024, and 2.3% in 2025. The "dots" indicate potential rate hikes this year and rate cuts next year. Powell emphasized caution during his press conference, despite strong growth and tight labor markets.

ECB Minutes: The ECB raised key rates by 25bps, signaling a commitment to restrictive rates for inflation's return. No changes were made to APP or PEPP parameters, with PEPP reinvestments until at least end-2024. Inflation projections increased for 2023 and 2024 but were lowered for 2025, remaining slightly above target. Growth projections for 2023-25 were reduced. President Lagarde emphasized uncertainty.

UK GDP: Projections for August M/M GDP growth are at 0.2% following a 0.5% contraction in July. Improved services and retail sales support growth, while manufacturing and construction pose limitations. It's unlikely to impact expectations of an unchanged BoE rate in November.

US CPI: September's headline and core consumer prices are expected to rise 0.3% M/M. Gasoline may boost the headline, but core inflation is expected to remain modest. Moody's anticipates a turbulent moderation in inflation. An unexpected increase could potentially alter market rate expectations.

Chinese Inflation: China's September CPI is projected at 0.2% YoY and 0.3% MoM, with PPI YoY at -2.4%. There are cost pressures in raw materials, but inflation remains below average. Surging oil prices may impact transport and energy costs.