Weekly Analysis (23 - 27 Oct)
| Time | Currency | Event |
| Monday | ||
| All Day | NZD | New Zealand - Labor Day |
| Tuesday | ||
| 05:00 | JPY | BoJ Core CPI (YoY) |
| 06:00 | GBP | Unemployment Rate (Aug) |
| 07:30 | EUR | HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Oct) |
| 07:30 | EUR | HCOB Germany Services PMI (Oct) |
| 08:00 | EUR | HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Oct) |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) |
| Wednesday | ||
| 00:30 | AUD | CPI (YoY) (Q3) |
| 08:00 | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) |
| 12:00 | USD | Building Permits |
| 14:00 | USD | New Home Sales (Sep) |
| 14:00 | CAD | BoC Interest Rate Decision |
| 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories |
| Thursday | ||
| 12:15 | EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct) |
| 12:15 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Statement |
| 12:30 | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) |
| 12:30 | USD | GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims |
| 12:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference |
| Friday | ||
| 00:30 | AUD | PPI (YoY) (Q3) |
| 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep) |
| 12:30 | USD | PCE Price index (YoY) (Sep) |
| 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep) |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) |
The US Dollar will be closely affected by private sector PMI data, particularly the service sector, which significantly contributes to the economy. Subcomponents, including prices, employment, and new orders, will be under scrutiny. Economists anticipate a modest decline in the Services PMI. Furthermore, Q3 GDP figures, jobless claims, inflation, personal spending, and consumer sentiment will sway the dollar. Notably, Federal Reserve commentary, especially from Chair Powell, will be of significance.
Regarding the euro, the EUR/USD will be influenced by consumer sentiment figures and preliminary private sector PMIs in the euro area. A drop in service sector activity could reinforce concerns of a Eurozone recession. Attention will also be on German business sentiment and French GDP data. The European Central Bank (ECB) is poised for an interest rate decision, with rates expected to hold steady.
The British Pound will be subject to close examination, primarily due to developments in the UK labor market and private sector PMIs. Labor market indicators, such as wage growth, claimant counts, and unemployment rates, will be closely watched. Private sector PMI figures, especially the Services PMI, will exert an impact on the Pound's performance. Additionally, a speech by BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Sir Jon Cunliffe will be noteworthy.
The Canadian Dollar's fate hinges on the Bank of Canada's anticipated interest rate decision, with a rate hike on the horizon. Market sentiment and crude oil prices will also influence the Loonie's performance.
The Australian Dollar's prospects depend on private sector PMIs, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). RBA Assistant Governor Michelle Bullock's speech, Q3 inflation figures, and producer prices will be pivotal factors. Elevated inflation rates may lead to expectations of an RBA rate hike.
The New Zealand Dollar will be responsive to market sentiment, while the Japanese Yen's direction will be guided by private sector PMIs and inflation. Japanese Services PMI and inflation figures will be closely monitored, particularly if inflation exceeds expectations, potentially impacting the Bank of Japan's policy decisions.