Weekly Analysis (30 Oct - 03 Nov)

This week's economic events to watch in the US include employment costs and consumer confidence, which could indicate consumption prospects. On Wednesday, pay attention to ADP nonfarm employment, JOLTs Job Openings, and manufacturing PMI figures, which might influence Fed rate hike expectations. The crucial factors will be the Fed's interest rate decision and forward guidance, with market sentiment expecting unchanged rates. Thursday highlights nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs for Q3, and weekly jobless claims, which could affect the Fed's stance. Finally, Friday's focus is on the US Jobs Report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI survey, with wage growth and unemployment rate as key indicators potentially impacting the Fed's rate path.
The upcoming week holds significance for both the euro and the British Pound. For the euro, attention is on German inflation and GDP data and Eurozone inflation in October, along with French GDP and Manufacturing PMI. Thursday brings Italian Manufacturing PMI and PMI revisions for Germany and the Eurozone, followed by German trade data and Eurozone unemployment on Friday. Monitoring ECB commentary, including speeches by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and Executive Board members, is crucial.
As for the British Pound, the spotlight is on the Bank of England's policy decision on Thursday, focusing on concerns about inflation and wage growth. The MPC Meeting Minutes and statements from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will shape the Pound's response. Economic indicators, such as UK house prices and Manufacturing PMIs on Wednesday, and revisions to the UK Services PMI on Friday, are significant. Furthermore, insights from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill's Friday speech are noteworthy.
Investors will closely monitor the Canadian Dollar in the coming week as GDP data is set to be released on Tuesday, followed by employment data on Friday. The speeches from Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Rogers and Governor Macklem, scheduled for Tuesday and Thursday, also hold significant interest.
Shifting our focus to the Australian Dollar, we'll closely watch the release of retail sales data on Monday, likely to influence RBA rate hike expectations. On Thursday, the spotlight will be on trade data. It's essential to keep a close watch on China's PMIs, including NBS and Caixin, as they provide valuable insights into AUD/USD sentiment and market risk dynamics.
The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Tuesday holds great importance, especially in relation to inflation forecasts. Any upward revisions in these forecasts could indicate a potential shift from the current ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
China NBS private sector PMI led to Caixin PMIs on Wednesday and Friday, affecting market risk sentiment. A surge in private sector activity suggests effective stimulus measures.