Weekly Analysis (06-10 Nov 2023)
| Time | Currency | Event |
| Monday | ||
| 08:55 | EUR | HCOB Germany Services PMI (Oct) |
| 09:00 | EUR | HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Oct) |
| 09:00 | EUR | HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Oct) |
| Tuesday | ||
| 03:30 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) |
| 03:30 | AUD | RBA Rate Statement |
| 07:00 | EUR | German Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) |
| 21:30 | EUR | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock |
| Wednesday | ||
| 07:00 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
| 11:00 | EUR | German Buba President Nagel Speaks |
| 14:15 | USD | Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
| 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories |
| Thursday | ||
| 01:30 | CNY | CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
| 01:30 | CNY | PPI (YoY) (Oct) |
| 09:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin |
| 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims |
| 16:30 | EUR | German Buba President Nagel Speaks |
| 19:00 | USD | Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
| Friday | ||
| 00:30 | AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement |
| 07:00 | GBP | GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
| 07:00 | GBP | GDP (MoM) (Sep) |
| 15:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov) |
This week, investors will closely watch the US initial jobless claims on Thursday. A notable increase in jobless claims could reinforce expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) concluding its rate hike cycle. Additionally, on Friday, consumer sentiment figures for November, especially sentiment regarding 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, will be significant.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver speeches on both Wednesday and Thursday, with other FOMC members also addressing various topics throughout the week.
Investors' attention will be focused on the performance of the German economy in the week of November 10, 2023. Key indicators from Germany, such as factory orders and the final services PMI figures for the eurozone on Monday, are expected to influence EUR/USD sentiment. Subsequently, German industrial production and final inflation figures on Tuesday and Wednesday are likely to increase EUR/USD sensitivity as fourth quarter data is factored in.
The latter part of the week will focus on the European Central Bank (ECB), with the ECB Economic Bulletin and speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde providing insights into the economic outlook, inflation, and possibly monetary policy.
This week will be pivotal for the pound. On Tuesday, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor will offer insights into consumer demand, impacted by elevated interest and mortgage rates, affecting the UK housing sector and consumer confidence. House price figures for October on the same day will also influence the pound's performance. Additionally, Thursday will bring the housing sector into focus, followed by the September GDP Report on Friday, where Q3 GDP numbers will take center stage. Bank of England speeches by Governor Andrew Bailey and Chief Economist Huw Pill are noteworthy.
Tuesday will see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision on interest rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike to curb inflation. However, the RBA's past surprises add an element of volatility to this event. Apart from the rate decision, investors will observe the rate statement and any commitment to further rate increases.
On Wednesday, inflation expectations will impact the Kiwi dollar, which could prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to consider raising its key interest rate. Thursday's electronic card retail sales and Friday's business PMI figures will also be important, with weak card retail sales potentially impacting RBNZ's policy decisions.
Monday will bring finalized services PMI numbers and minutes from the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, albeit from the October meeting with limited impact expected. Tuesday's household spending data will be crucial, as the Bank of Japan seeks wage growth to drive demand and inflation. Weak spending could lead the BoJ to reassess the effectiveness of government stimulus measures.