Weekly Analysis (11 - 15 Sep 2023)
| Time | Currency | Event |
| Monday | ||
| 08:00 | AUD | BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks |
| 23:00 | GBP | BoE MPC Member Mann |
| Tuesday | ||
| 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jul) |
| 06:00 | GBP | Unemployment Rate (Jul) |
| 09:00 | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep) |
| 11:00 | USD | OPEC Monthly Report |
| 16:00 | USD | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook |
| Wednesday | ||
| 06:00 | GBP | GDP (MoM) (Jul) |
| 06:00 | GBP | Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jul) |
| 12:30 | USD | Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) |
| 12:30 | USD | CPI (YoY) (Aug) |
| 13:15 | GBP | BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks |
| 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories |
| Thursday | ||
| 12:15 | EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) |
| 12:30 | USD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims |
| 12:30 | USD | CPI (YoY) (Aug) |
| 12:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference |
| 14:15 | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks |
| Friday | ||
| 02:00 | CNY | CB Supervisory Board Member Fernandez-Bollo Speaks |
| 07:10 | EUR | German Buba Wuermeling Speaks |
| 09:00 | EUR | Wages in Eurozone (YoY) (Q2) |
| 09:45 | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks |
| 12:30 | USD | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep) |
The global currency landscape is expected to be greatly influenced by important events and economic indicators this week.
In the United States, the release of the August CPI Report on Wednesday will significantly impact market sentiment. Any signs of increasing inflation are likely to fuel expectations of more Federal Reserve rate hikes. It's worth noting that the Fed tends to favor the Core PCE Price Index as its preferred inflation measure.
Thursday brings the release of US retail sales and initial jobless claims data. These figures will be closely observed as a strong labor market supports wage growth, potentially countering the effects of Fed rate hikes by stimulating consumption and demand-driven inflation.
On Friday, attention will shift to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers for September, providing significance to the US dollar's performance.
The Euro (EUR) faces a rough week with critical events including the ECB monetary policy decision and economic uncertainties within the Eurozone testing investor appetite. Early in the week, German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment figures are expected to reflect a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, potentially leading to a sharp drop in sentiment.
Eurozone industrial production figures on Wednesday are likely to confirm the ongoing woes in the manufacturing sector. Conversely, Eurozone wage growth data for the second quarter, scheduled for release on Friday, will be crucial in influencing expectations regarding ECB monetary policy. A rise in wage growth has the potential to boost spending and demand-driven inflation, which is a concern for the ECB.
However, the central focal point of the week will undoubtedly be the ECB monetary policy decision and the ensuing press conference on Thursday. Economists generally anticipate the ECB to maintain its current monetary policy stance, placing significant emphasis on ECB President Lagarde's guidance to guide market movements.
Beyond these economic indicators and events, it's advisable for investors to closely monitor the ECB calendar and news outlets for any pertinent commentary throughout the week.
The British Pound (GBP) will also be in the spotlight. On Tuesday, wage growth and employment figures will be released, with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's recent comments suggesting a reduced likelihood of further BoE rate hikes. A noticeable uptick in wage growth could challenge this pause theory.
The monthly GDP Report on Wednesday is expected to impact expectations related to a BoE-induced recession. Speeches by BOE members, starting with Chief Economist Huw Pill on Monday, will offer insights into inflation, the economy, and interest rates.