Weekly Analysis (27 Nov - 1 Dec)

The US Dollar's performance this week will be influenced by key economic data, starting with the housing sector and consumer confidence numbers. The housing sector is indicative of the economy's health, while consumer confidence, influencing over 60% of the US economy through spending, holds particular significance. Weak consumer spending could soften the economy, potentially easing the need for a hawkish Federal Reserve rate path. Midweek, the focus shifts to Q3 GDP numbers, personal income, inflation, and spending figures, with softer inflation and a pullback in spending and income possibly fueling speculation about a May Fed rate cut. Wrapping up the week, ISM Manufacturing PMIs will be scrutinized for signs of economic stress, which could affect the dollar. Additionally, speeches by Fed Chair Powell and FOMC members will be closely watched for policy clues.
In Europe, the EUR will be influenced by early-week German consumer confidence figures, coupled with inflation data from Germany, Spain, France, and the Eurozone, likely to shape expectations for European Central Bank policy. Softer inflation could stimulate rate-cut discussions. German retail sales, French consumer spending, and unemployment figures in Germany and the Eurozone will also be relevant, though secondary to inflation figures. The week will conclude with Manufacturing PMI numbers from key Eurozone economies, and speeches by ECB President Lagarde throughout the week will be pivotal for gaining insights into policy considerations.
The GBP will be influenced by Bank of England Governor Bailey's speeches, focusing on interest rate cut discussions. Midweek, MPC member Haskel's speech and house price figures will provide further insights, with final Manufacturing PMI numbers rounding off the week.
The Canadian Dollar will react to market risk sentiment and oil prices initially, with Q3 GDP numbers and employment figures later in the week potentially affecting the Bank of Canada's policy outlook.
For the Australian Dollar, retail sales data will be key, influencing the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy stance. Housing sector data and private new CAPEX numbers for Q3 will also be significant but less likely to sway RBA rate hike expectations.
The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) will be influenced by the policy decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the subsequent press conference. Private sector PMI numbers from China will also play a role in shaping the currency's performance.
In Japan, retail sales and industrial production figures will offer insights into the Japanese economy's health, influencing Bank of Japan policy expectations. Unemployment and capital spending numbers will further shape the outlook for the Japanese Yen.
Finally, China's NBS private sector PMI numbers and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI will be closely monitored. These figures will have broader implications for risk sentiment and could prompt policy responses from Beijing, particularly if the data disappoints, increasing the likelihood of stimulus measures to support the real estate market and the economy.