Weekly Analysis (11-18 Dec)
| Time | Currency | Event |
| Monday | ||
| 18:00 | USD | 10-Year Note Auction |
| 20:10 | EUR | ECB McCaul Speaks |
| Tuesday | ||
| 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence (Nov) |
| 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct) |
| 07:00 | GBP | Unemployment Rate (Oct) |
| 10:00 | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec) |
| 13:30 | USD | Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) |
| 13:30 | USD | CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
| 18:00 | USD | 30-Year Bond Auction |
| Wednesday | ||
| 07:00 | GBP | GDP (MoM) (Oct) |
| 12:00 | USD | OPEC Monthly Report |
| 13:30 | USD | PPI (MoM) (Nov) |
| 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories |
| 18:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision |
| 19:00 | USD | FOMC Economic Projections |
| 19:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
| 21:45 | NZD | GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
| Thursday | ||
| 00:30 | AUD | Employment Change (Nov) |
| 09:00 | USD | IEA Monthly Report |
| 12:00 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) |
| 12:00 | GBP | BoE MPC Meeting Minutes |
| 13:15 | EUR | Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) |
| 13:15 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Statement |
| 13:15 | EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision Core |
| 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims |
| 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) |
| Friday | ||
| 00:30 | JPY | au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI |
| 09:00 | EUR | HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Dec) |
| 09:30 | GBP | S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI |
| 13:30 | USD | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec) |
| 14:45 | USD | S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) |
This week, the financial market is expected to be shaped by a series of key economic reports and central bank decisions across various currencies.
In the United Kingdom, the focus will be on the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest policy meeting. The Pound (GBP) could see notable movements, especially if the BoE adopts a hawkish stance in its forward guidance. The UK's jobs report and GDP figures, scheduled for release in the first half of the week, may also influence GBP exchange rates, potentially acting as a drag if the data is unfavorable.
The Euro (EUR) faces potential pressure this week due to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) impending interest rate decision. Although no immediate changes in monetary policy are anticipated, the ECB is reportedly considering multiple rate cuts in 2024. Confirmation of this could result in a significant drop in EUR exchange rates.
For the US Dollar (USD), investors will closely monitor the latest US consumer price index. Persistent signs of high inflation may strengthen the USD, particularly as the Federal Reserve approaches its final policy meeting of the year. The Fed is expected to maintain current interest rates, but any insight into its policy plans for 2024 could cause notable market volatility. A negation of speculation around early interest rate cuts could particularly strengthen the USD.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) might experience mixed trading dynamics. Early in the week, improvements in domestic consumer and business confidence are anticipated, potentially shielding the AUD from risk-averse market flows. However, towards the week's end, a forecasted increase in Australia’s unemployment rate could pose challenges for the currency.
For the Canadian Dollar (CAD), with limited domestic data releases, oil price trends are likely to be a significant influence. A continued rebound in oil prices from recent lows could support the CAD.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may face downward pressure due to the anticipated release of New Zealand's latest GDP figures, which are expected to show a considerable slowdown in economic activity for the third quarter. Additionally, the anticipation of several major central bank rate decisions may contribute to a cautious market stance, potentially impacting the NZD negatively.
In Beijing, there is an expectation for an increase in new loans as a sign of progress towards domestically-driven demand. Should the loan data disappoint, authorities may consider cutting the 1 and 5-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rates to stimulate economic growth.