Weekly Analysis (01 - 05 April)

Investors in the United States are keenly awaiting the forthcoming US jobs report, as well as the ISM PMI surveys for both the services and manufacturing sectors. It's anticipated that non-farm payrolls will grow by 198,000 in March, a notable reduction from February's addition of 275,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is projected to stay steady at 3.9%, the highest since January 2022, while monthly wage growth is expected to pick up pace to 0.3%, up from the previous 0.1%. The ISM reports for March should indicate the manufacturing sector's continued contraction for the 17th consecutive month, whereas the service sector is expected to maintain its robust growth from February. Investors will also pay close attention to remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Powell's address at the 2024 Business, Government & Society Forum at Stanford's Graduate School of Business. Other notable data releases include the JOLTs job openings, ADP employment change, factory orders, foreign trade statistics, and the final S&P Global PMI figures. In Canada, the focus will be on employment statistics, trade balance, and PMI reports from Ivey and S&P Global.
In Europe, the spotlight will be on critical inflation data from the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, with the Euro Area's HICP rate expected to stabilize at 2.6% in March. Euro Area retail sales are forecasted to rise for the second month in a row. Germany may see an uptick in factory orders after a significant six-month drop, and France's industrial production is anticipated to improve in February. The employment figures from the Euro Area, Italy, and Spain. Moreover, the Eurozone, Germany, and France will publish final S&P Global PMI estimates, with preliminary data expected from Spain and Italy. Italy's factory activity is expected to shrink for the twelfth straight month, whereas Spain's manufacturing and services sectors are projected to grow. The minutes from the ECB's latest monetary policy meeting might shed light on potential interest rate cuts. The UK will release S&P Global PMI final estimates, monetary indicators from the Bank of England, and housing price data from Halifax and Nationwide.
In Asia, China's March PMI figures, including official and Caixin indexes, are eagerly anticipated, with varied results. Japan's BoJ Tankan index for large manufacturers is predicted to decline after three consecutive quarters of gains. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain its policy rate at 6.5%, as inflation has remained below its upper tolerance limit and the rupee faced significant pressure in late March. Australia will spotlight minutes from the RBA's latest meeting and February's trade balance figures.