Gold rallies rarely stop for one reason. They slow down when the main triggers weaken. In order to keep track, one needs to follow real yields, the Fed path, central bank demand, and risk across regions.
In this article, we’ll review major precious metal rallies in history and discuss what could shape the next phase of gold.
The 1970s was one of the most important decades in gold’s history as the global financial system changed completely.
In 1971, the US ended the dollar’s direct link to gold. This decision weakened confidence in paper currencies. Soon after, inflation began to rise suddenly. Oil news made things worse and pushed prices even higher across the economy.
It was becoming clear that:
Gold became the natural hedge. Demand increased, and prices entered a long and powerful uptrend. It was driven by fear of inflation and weakening trust in the monetary system.
Key takeaway: The 1970s rally shows that gold performs best when inflation is high and confidence in currencies declines.
The next major gold rally came after the 2008 financial crisis. Markets were broken. Banks collapsed, confidence disappeared, and the global system faced a real shock.
Central banks responded with aggressive actions:
This created a new fear not only of recession, but also currency debasement. Investors started to hedge long-term risk, and gold gained strong demand as a “crisis shield.”
Gold moved from around $700 in 2008 to near $1,900 by 2011. It was one of the strongest moves in modern history.
Key takeaway: Gold rallies strongly when the financial system looks fragile and central banks flood markets with liquidity.
Gold started rising again before COVID. The trigger was growing tension between the US and China. Trade war headlines increased uncertainty and pushed investors into safer assets.
Then the pandemic hit. This became a global panic event.
Gold benefited from both fear and policy response. It broke above major resistance levels and climbed over $2,000 in 2020.
Key takeaway: Gold performs best when uncertainty is extreme and central banks turn supportive.
Each rally happened in a different decade. But the reasons followed the same pattern. Gold moves higher when the world feels unstable.
Most strong rallies had at least two indicators working together:
Gold started gaining strength again in 2024, but this time the rally had a different shape. It was supported by several drivers at the same time, which made it harder to stop.
Political tension became one of the main triggers. Markets faced ongoing conflict risks, sanctions, and rising trade war fears. Trump-related headlines added another layer of volatility. Statements about the Fed and aggressive political addressing increased uncertainty, which pushed more demand into safe-haven assets.
Interest rate expectations supported gold around this time. Even when the Fed stayed cautious, markets kept focusing on the possibility of future cuts. Real yields became unstable, and that helped gold hold its strength during pullbacks.
Another key force was central bank demand. Many countries continued buying gold as a reserve asset. This added long-term support and reduced the impact of short-term corrections.
Key takeaway: The rally which started in the second half of 2024 is still running in 2026. Because it is backed by these 3 forces.
Gold can stay in a bullish trend longer than most traders expect. But even the strongest rallies do not move in a straight line. The real question is not whether gold will pull back.
To think clearly, it helps to look at three possible scenarios.
Gold may continue rising if the direction is unclear and markets keep the risk hedging. This scenario becomes more likely when:
In this case, corrections may happen, but the trend stays alive. New ATHs can be expected.
Gold may cool down, consolidate, and reset. But the bigger trend remains bullish.
What it looks like:
In this phase, gold becomes more technical again. May offer more trading opportunities between the swings
A real trend reversal usually starts when the key macro drivers flip. Gold could lose strength if:
In this case, gold may still bounce, but rallies become weaker. Support zones break more easily. The market starts behaving like a top-building cycle instead of a trend.
Even during strong rallies, the market still reacts to a few key drivers. If you want to understand whether the trend can continue, you should follow these “road signs.”
Real yields are one of the strongest drivers of gold. When real yields fall, gold becomes more attractive. When they rise, gold usually faces pressure.
In simple terms:
Gold is priced in dollars. So, the dollar trend (DXY) matters.
But there is an important detail. During crisis periods, both USD and gold can rise together.
Gold reacts to expectations more than the final decision. Even small changes in language can move the market.
Watch for:
When the Fed becomes more flexible, gold usually gets a tailwind.
Inflation data still matters, especially when the market fears a second inflation wave.
But if inflation stays high while growth slows, gold can benefit even more. This is the “bad news is good for gold” setup.
Central banks don’t trade like retail traders. They buy for long-term reserve strategy. That’s why their demand can create strong support during pullbacks.
If central bank buying remains active, gold tends to stay resilient.
This cycle has a strong political premium. Some of the headlines that can move gold quickly are:
Even if the move fades later, these shocks often keep volatility high and support demand.
What usually ends a gold bull market?
Gold rallies often cool down when real yields rise, the Fed turns hawkish, and geopolitical fear fades. The trend ends when the main drivers weaken, not because price “looks high.”
Can gold keep rallying even if the Fed doesn’t cut rates?
Yes. Gold can still rise if markets expect future easing, or if uncertainty remains high. Sometimes expectations matter more than the decision itself.
Is gold more sensitive to real yields or the US dollar?
In most cycles, real yields are the stronger driver. The dollar matters too, but gold can still rise in a strong USD environment if fear and hedging demand are high.
How do you know if gold is entering a “blow-off top” phase?
Watch for:
Blow-off tops often end with sharp drops and very quick rebounds.
What kind of pullback is “healthy” in a gold rally?
A healthy pullback is controlled and structured:
Why does gold rally during political tension even without inflation?
Because gold is also a trust hedge, not just an inflation hedge. When markets price political risk, capital shifts to assets seen as safer and more stable.
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