Weekly Analysis

The week began with markets focused on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision after hotter US inflation data strengthened expectations for another rate hike. August CPI remained at 3.4% year-on-year, but the monthly increase accelerated to 0.4%, its strongest in three months, while producer prices also picked up. Markets now assign roughly an 86% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed hike, supporting the dollar and pushing Treasury yields higher.

Global markets entered the week with renewed expectations for Federal Reserve tightening after a surprisingly strong US employment report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, nearly three times the 56,000 forecast, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. The Dollar Index recovered to 99.3 and Treasury yields moved higher as markets raised the probability of a September Fed hike to nearly 60%.

Global markets entered the week with renewed focus on Federal Reserve tightening after Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole address to push back against expectations that US inflation pressures were fading. The Dollar Index held near 99.6 after Friday’s sharp advance, while Treasury yields moved higher and precious metals retreated. Markets raised the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 57% from 40% a week earlier as Warsh reiterated the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target.

Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under continued pressure as concerns over federal debt and Treasury market management moved to the center of investor attention. The Dollar Index hovered near 98.8 following sharp losses in the previous week, while the US Treasury’s expanded bond buyback programme pushed longer-term yields and the dollar lower. The move supported gold, silver, and major currencies, while investors assessed its longer-term implications for US borrowing costs and the yield curve.

Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under renewed pressure as softer inflation, retail sales, and employment data reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The Dollar Index traded around 99.61, while markets assigned roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in September. Gold and silver extended their gains as the shift in Fed expectations supported precious metals, while the euro and pound benefited from the dollar’s declining yield advantage.

Global markets entered the week as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's outlook after a surprisingly weak US employment report signaled further deterioration in labor market conditions. The Dollar Index fell toward a two-month low, while gold and silver held onto strong weekly gains as expectations for a September Fed rate hike dropped sharply. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continued to influence oil prices and global inflation expectations, with Iran and Oman reporting progress toward a transit agreement but no broader resolution yet reached.

Global markets entered August with investors reassessing the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook while renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran triggered sharp moves in oil and precious metals. The dollar recovered to around 100.3 but remained under pressure after posting its worst weekly decline in three months. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell more than 4% after President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran would resume, easing immediate concerns over the Strait of Hormuz and energy-driven inflation.

Global markets began the week on a more positive footing after a pause in US and Iranian military operations reduced immediate concerns over energy supplies and inflation. The United States quietly suspended its nearly two-week strike campaign against Iran late Friday, while Tehran halted retaliatory operations and entered discussions with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The developments pushed oil prices sharply lower, supporting precious metals and government bonds after weeks of pressure from rising energy costs.