Weekly Analysis

The dollar index held near 99.5 on Friday, its lowest in over two weeks, as Trump’s proposed 50% tariffs on EU goods and widening U.S. fiscal concerns pressured sentiment. The euro touched $1.137 before easing to $1.13, set for a weekly gain, supported by solid German data but capped by weak PMI and ECB rate cut bets. The yen rose to 143.6, gaining over 1% this week after core inflation hit a two-year high at 3.5%. The pound climbed above $1.347 on strong UK retail sales, improved confidence, and falling energy prices, though inflation at 3.5% kept BoE cut expectations in play.

The U.S. dollar held near 100.8, heading for a 0.6% weekly gain as weak data increased Fed cut bets. The euro rebounded to $1.12 on firm inflation and ECB cut hopes. The pound hovered near $1.32 as UK jobs data raised BoE cut odds. The yen rose toward 145 despite Japan’s 0.2% GDP drop, with the BoJ staying cautious.

The dollar index dipped to 100 on Friday but posted a third weekly gain, supported by the Fed’s steady policy and Trump’s upbeat trade tone. The euro held at $1.13 as traders eyed ECB cuts by year-end. The pound steadied near $1.33 after a limited US-UK trade deal. The yen weakened past 145 on stronger dollar demand and improved global trade sentiment.

Gold hovered near $3,250, on track for its worst week in two months as safe-haven demand eased. Trump signaled hopes for a trade deal with China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The euro stayed above $1.13 after April inflation data beat forecasts, reinforcing ECB rate cut bets.

The dollar rose above 99.5, supported by Trump’s trade reassurances and softer stance on Powell. The euro closed at $1.1350, up 5% this month after the ECB cut rates to 2.25%. The yen weakened to 143.65 as trade optimism grew, while Tokyo inflation rose to 3.4%.

The U.S. dollar index ended near a three-year low, pressured by trade policy uncertainty, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and cooling inflation. The euro briefly hit its highest since January 2022 before easing after a 25 bps ECB rate cut and weak growth outlook.

The U.S. dollar index fell to 99, a near three-year low, as trade tensions intensified. China hiked tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% after Washington raised rates to 145% on Chinese imports. The euro jumped above $1.14, up 3.5% for the week, while the pound rose past $1.30 on strong UK GDP. The yen also gained on safe-haven demand and a Treasurie selloff.

The dollar index stayed above 102, supported by strong U.S. jobs data but pressured by rising trade tensions. China’s new 34% tariff raised recession fears and increased Fed rate cut expectations.