Weekly Analysis

The dollar climbed to a six-week high, while the euro, pound, and yen weakened against growing expectations that central banks may keep rates higher for longer.

Global markets moved through another volatile week as investors balanced resilient US economic data against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. The US dollar weakened further, falling below 98 and reaching a ten-week low despite stronger labor market figures. At the same time, fragile ceasefire conditions between the United States and Iran continued to shape energy markets, while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remained a key source of inflation risk and market caution.

Global markets moved through a volatile and uneven week as currency intervention, shifting energy dynamics, and cautious central bank signals reshaped sentiment. The US dollar came under sustained pressure, briefly falling below 98 to its lowest level since late February, largely driven by a sharp rally in the Japanese yen following suspected intervention. At the same time, geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz and renewed US–Iran diplomatic efforts continued to influence energy markets, keeping inflation expectations in focus.

Global markets moved into a risk-sensitive phase this week as stalled US–Iran negotiations and renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz reshaped sentiment. Safe-haven demand returned as reports of naval activity and continued blockades signaled that a quick resolution remains unlikely. With the key shipping route still largely restricted, energy prices surged, feeding directly into inflation concerns and shifting expectations across currencies, commodities, and bond markets.

Global markets navigated a volatile week as shifting signals from the United States–Iran conflict kept sentiment fragile. Early optimism around a potential resolution, including claims of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, briefly eased inflation concerns and reduced safe-haven demand. However, conflicting developments, including renewed uncertainty over the blockade and energy supply risks, kept oil prices elevated and prevented a full recovery in risk appetite.

Global sentiment shifted this week as markets balanced high-stakes diplomacy in Islamabad with a severe energy supply squeeze. While talks between US and Iranian officials provided a fragile glimmer of hope, the US-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by a breakdown in weekend negotiations, sent Brent crude surging 8% to approximately $103/barrel.

Global markets remained in a state of high-tension equilibrium this week as President Trump extended a strike deadline to April 6, providing a 10-day window for a potential deal with Tehran. Despite this temporary pause on targeting energy sites and the passage of 10 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, market skepticism remains high. Brent crude surged past $111/barrel, its highest since 2022, as the Pentagon weighed further troop deployments and Iran rejected the latest US 15-point plan.

Global markets remained under pressure as the conflict in the Middle East entered a more volatile phase, driving Brent crude past $110/barrel, which is its highest level since mid-2022.