Currencies and Commodities Hold Range (07.03.2025)

Major currencies and commodities traded cautiously on Thursday as markets awaited crucial US labor data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next move.

EUR/USD held near 1.1800 after weak ADP employment figures increased bets on rate cuts, while the Japanese yen stabilized around 143.7 amid trade optimism and dollar softness. Gold remained supported at $3,360 on hopes of further trade deals and rising geopolitical risks, and silver extended gains to $36.70, lifted by easing trade tensions.

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
12:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)	0.30%	0.40%
12:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,960K	1,974K
12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	240K	236K
12:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)	111K	139K
12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate (Jun)	4.30%	4.20%
14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	50.8	49.9
14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun)		68.7
15:00	USD	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

EUR/USD Steady Near 1.1800 as Fed Cut Bets Rise

EUR/USD held steady for a second session near 1.1800 in early Thursday trading. The pair could gain momentum as the US dollar weakens on rising expectations of a Fed rate cut after ADP data disappointed.

June’s ADP Employment Change showed a surprise 33,000 drop, its first decline in over two years, well below forecasts of 95,000. May’s figure was also revised down to a 29,000 gain.

Attention now turns to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Services PMI, and S&P Global US PMI.

Key levels: Resistance at 1.1830; support at 1.1730.

R1: 1.1830	S1: 1.1730
R2: 1.1910	S2: 1.1690
R3: 1.2015	S3: 1.1630

JPY Steadies, Trade Optimism Counters Dollar Weakness

The Japanese yen held near 143.7 against the dollar on Thursday, stabilizing after recent losses, supported by improved trade sentiment and a weaker greenback.

Japan reiterated its aim for a fair trade deal with the US, though Trump raised pressure by threatening tariffs up to 35% on Japanese imports over low US rice and car sales. Meanwhile, a finalized US-Vietnam deal added to market optimism.

The yen also found support as investors awaited key US jobs data, which could increase the odds of a Fed rate cut.

Key levels: Resistance at 145.70; support at 143.55.

Gold Supported by Trade Hopes

Gold traded around $3,360 per ounce on Thursday, supported by news of a US-Vietnam trade deal and ongoing dollar weakness.

The deal, which eases some tariffs on Vietnamese goods, increased hopes for further bilateral agreements. Meanwhile, softer US labor data, ADP figures showed the first payrolls drop in over two years, strengthened the case for Fed easing.

Tensions in the Middle East, with Iran halting cooperation with the UN nuclear agency, added a touch of geopolitical risk.

Resistance is at $3,395, while support holds at $3,330.

GBP/USD Slides with Fiscal Worries

GBP/USD edged lower toward 1.3625 in Asian trading, pressured by a sharp selloff in UK government bonds and growing fiscal concerns.

Gilts suffered their biggest drop since October 2022 after the government’s decision to cut welfare benefits and mounting doubts over the Chancellor’s political future.

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC, noted: “The drop isn’t limited to the British Pound, UK gilts are also under heavy selling. It seems to be a broader crisis of confidence in the Labour government.”

Resistance is at 1.3675, while support holds at 1.3570.

Silver Extends Gains to $36.70

Silver hovered near $36.70 on Thursday after rising 1.4% in the previous session, supported by easing trade tensions and stronger expectations of Fed rate cuts.

Markets are now watching key US economic releases to see whether silver can sustain its upward momentum.

Resistance is at 37.50, while support holds at 35.40.