Dollar Softens as Markets Reprice Fed Cut Odds (11.24.2025)

Global markets opened the week cautiously as shifting rate expectations and currency volatility shaped sentiment. Gold slipped toward $4,040 ahead of key US data, while odds of a December Fed rate cut rose to nearly 70% after comments from John Williams. 

The yen weakened past 156.5 despite fresh verbal intervention, and GBP/USD edged lower under a stronger dollar, holding just below 1.3100. Silver hovered near $49.80, pressured by renewed caution from Fed Governor Michael Barr on future rate cuts.

Euro Gains on Fed Bets

EUR/USD edged up toward 1.1525 early Monday as the US Dollar softened on rising expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Comments from NY Fed President John Williams, who said labor-market risks now outweigh inflation concerns, lifted the implied cut probability to about 70% from 40% a week ago. Other officials were more cautious, with Boston’s Susan Collins noting that additional easing requires a “high bar,” and Dallas’s Lorie Logan preferring to keep rates unchanged without stronger justification.

Technically, 1.1480 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1625.

Yen Falls Back After Official Alert

The Japanese yen slipped beyond 156.5 per dollar on Monday, giving back part of its prior session’s gains as traders evaluated a new round of official warnings meant to slow the currency’s decline. On Sunday, Takuji Aida, an adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, said the government is ready to take direct action in the FX market to offset the economic impact of the yen’s continued weakness.

Technically, resistance stands near 157.95, while support is firm at 155.20.

Gold Slips Below $4,050 as Dollar Strengthens

Gold slipped below $4,050 in Monday’s Asian trade as a stronger US Dollar and improved equity sentiment pressured the metal. Although Fed signals remain mixed, the USD is holding near late-May highs, limiting safe-haven demand. Even so, rising Russia-Ukraine tensions and renewed Middle East conflicts may help prevent sharper declines. With XAU/USD still confined to last week’s range, traders now look to key US releases, including preliminary Q3 GDP and the PCE Price Index, for clearer direction.

From a technical view, support is seen near $4025, while resistance is positioned around $4110.

Sterling Pulls Back After Two-Day Rebound

The British pound failed to build on its two-day rebound against the US Dollar, starting the week on a weaker footing as renewed USD strength weighed on the pair. Even with the mild decline, GBP/USD remains comfortably above last week’s swing low and is trading just under 1.3100, down roughly 0.15% on the day.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3020, with resistance around 1.3160.

Silver Falls Back Toward Recent Lows

Silver was unable to build on Friday’s mild recovery from the $48.65–$48.60 support area, its lowest level in nearly two weeks, and came under fresh selling pressure as the new week began. The metal is now trading near $49.80, down roughly 0.30% on the day, and remains vulnerable to further downside. Sentiment softened after Fed Governor Michael Barr urged caution on additional rate cuts, stressing that inflation is still above target.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $51.10, while support is located around $48.75.