Dollar Weakens on Jobs Miss and Shutdown (10.02.2025)

The euro held firm near $1.1735 after weaker U.S. jobs data and ongoing government shutdown pressures weighed on the dollar. The yen steadied around 147 per dollar following a four-day rally, while speculation about future BOJ tightening kept investors cautious. 

Gold hovered close to record highs above $3,870 as safe-haven demand persisted, and silver traded near $47.20 amid expectations of another global supply deficit. Sterling extended its rally above $1.3470, supported by steady BoE policy and a softer U.S. dollar.

Euro Holds Firm as U.S. Jobs Miss and Shutdown

EUR/USD held near 1.1735 late in the Asian session as traders digested weaker US employment data and looked beyond the government shutdown. The prolonged standoff between the White House and Democrats risks extending the closure and delaying key economic reports. The US dollar weakened after ADP figures fell short of forecasts while the nation entered its first shutdown in seven years.

Technically, 1.1690 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1770 and then 1.1810.

USD/JPY Steady After Four-Day Yen Rally Amid Political Impasse

The yen hovered near 147 per dollar on Thursday after four straight sessions of gains, supported by safe-haven demand and a softer dollar following the US government shutdown. The political impasse, expected to last at least three days, will delay key data releases including September’s nonfarm payrolls. At the same time, speculation that the Bank of Japan could resume policy normalization later this year provided further backing, with markets pricing a 40% probability of a quarter-point hike at this month’s meeting.

Resistance is at 148.50, while support holds at 146.80.

Gold Steadies Close to Record Highs

Gold held near $3,870 per ounce on Thursday, staying close to its record high as investors turned to safety and anticipated further Federal Reserve rate cuts. ADP data showed a decline in US private-sector jobs in September, marking a second consecutive drop and the steepest since March 2023, reinforcing expectations for additional easing by the Fed this year.

From a technical perspective, support is around 3792, and resistance is at 3880.

Sterling Supported by Steady BoE Policy

The British pound climbed to $1.3477 on Thursday, extending its rally for a fourth straight session and marking the longest run since August. The move was supported by a softer US dollar as the Trump-era government shutdown weighed on sentiment. Additional backing came from the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates unchanged in September, with markets not anticipating the next cut until 2026.

Technically, support is at 1.3420, with a break lower exposing 1.3325. Resistance sits at 1.3495 and 1.3525.

Silver Holds Near $47.20 as Supply Deficit Looms

Silver steadied near $47.20 per ounce in Thursday’s Asian session, staying close to the record high hit a day earlier after the US government shut down following the Senate’s rejection of a short-term funding bill. Supporting the bullish outlook, the Silver Institute projected a global market deficit for a fifth straight year in 2025, with expected output of 844 million ounces trailing demand by roughly 100 million ounces.

From a technical perspective, resistance is observed at 47.75, while support is located at 45.95.