Dovish Outlook Lifts Sentiment (11.26.2025)

Global markets turned cautiously optimistic Wednesday, supported by rising expectations of a December Fed rate cut. EUR/USD extended its three-day climb near 1.1580, while the yen held firm around 156 on speculation of potential intervention and softer US data.

GBP/USD traded close to 1.3190 ahead of the UK Autumn Budget, where large tax hikes are expected to reinforce fiscal stability.

In commodities, gold hovered near $4,160 and silver held above $52 as weakening US economic indicators strengthened easing bets, with markets pricing an over 80% chance of a December cut.

Euro Extends Climb on Cut Expectations

EUR/USD extended its three-day advance on Wednesday, trading near 1.1580 in Asia and supported by weaker US data that strengthened expectations of a December Fed cut. The ECB is meanwhile expected to hold rates through 2026, noting resilience in the Eurozone economy and inflation near target, though food and services pressures are likely to keep policy cautious.

Technically, 1.1510 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1625.

Yen Holds Near 156 on Intervention Talk

The Japanese yen held around 156 per dollar on Wednesday, near one-week highs as a softer US dollar provided support. Rate-cut expectations strengthened after weaker US spending data and reports that a dovish candidate may be considered for the next Fed chair. The yen also gained on speculation that Japanese authorities could intervene in the currency market, with the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday viewed as a possible timing window.

Technically, resistance stands near 158.50, while support is firm at 155.10.

Gold Nears $4,160 on Fed Outlook

Gold climbed toward $4,160 per ounce on Wednesday, trading near a two-week high as delayed US data reinforced expectations of a possible December Fed rate cut. The figures indicated softer household spending, with September retail sales increasing only 0.2% after a stronger August print. Meanwhile, producer price results were broadly in line with estimates, signaling contained inflation pressures and supporting the outlook for monetary easing.

From a technical view, support is seen near $4100, while resistance is positioned around $4190.

Pound Climbs for Fifth Day Ahead of Reeves’ Autumn Budget

GBP/USD extended gains for a fifth session on Wednesday, trading near 1.3190 in Asia. Focus now turns to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who will present the Autumn Budget and is expected to announce large tax increases. It’d be a move that will test her standing with bond investors and lawmakers pushing for increased welfare spending. A tighter fiscal stance could support long-term confidence in UK assets and offer mild upside for the Pound.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3050, with resistance around 1.3220.

Silver Steadies Above $52 Amid Weak Data

Silver held firm above $52 on Wednesday, supported by growing expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut. A run of soft US indicators has increased concern about slowing economic momentum, pushing investors toward safer assets. Sentiment strengthened further after Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated support for a December cut, with Mary Daly and John Williams also signaling openness to easing. As a result, markets now price in more than an 80% probability of a 25bps cut next month, up sharply from around 40% just a week earlier.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $52.50, while support is located around $49.50.