Easing Fed-Cut Expectations Mix Markets (11.21.2025)

EUR/USD held near 1.1540 after the NFP-driven Dollar pullback, while the Yen saw a mild lift on rising intervention speculation despite Japan’s growing fiscal risks. 

Gold softened as solid September payrolls weakened December cut expectations, and GBP/USD extended its rebound ahead of fresh data releases. Silver fell below $50 for a second day as traders reassessed the Fed outlook. Key support and resistance levels continue to guide market positioning across all assets.

EUR/USD Steadies as Fed-Cut Bets Ease

EUR/USD edged up to 1.1540 on Friday after a quiet session, helped by a slightly weaker US Dollar as traders reassessed Fed-cut prospects following solid September payrolls. NFP increased by 119,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%, with FedWatch pricing a 36% chance of a December cut. Attention now shifts to German, Eurozone, and US PMI data. The Euro remains steady as markets expect the ECB to hold rates through 2026, with inflation near target and conditions broadly stable.

Technically, 1.1470 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1625.

Yen Inches Up on Intervention Hopes

The Japanese Yen saw a modest recovery on Friday, lifted by weaker equities and speculation that authorities may act to curb further currency declines after comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Still, its upside is restrained as Japan’s approval of a ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package deepens fiscal worries and expectations grow that the BoJ will delay rate hikes. Meanwhile, the US Dollar hovers near late-May highs amid fading Fed-cut bets, keeping USD/JPY supported.

Technically, resistance stands near 158.95, while support is firm at 155.20.

Gold Softens After Jobs Report

Gold fell to about $4,060 on Friday and is poised for a small weekly loss as expectations for a December Fed rate cut weakened after the delayed jobs report. September payrolls rose 119,000, beating forecasts, while unemployment increased to 4.4% and wages grew 3.8%, pointing to a cooling but steady labor market. With October data folded into November and Fed officials urging caution, the probability of a December cut has dropped to about 40%.

From a technical view, support is seen near $4025, while resistance is positioned around $4110.

GBP/USD Firms as Traders Await Data

GBP/USD extended Thursday’s rebound, approaching 1.31 in early Asian trade after briefly recovering from 1.3050. Even so, the pair stays below major long-term moving averages, keeping traders cautious ahead of Friday’s data releases. The delayed September NFP report showed a solid 119K job gain versus the 50K estimate, reducing expectations for a December 10 Fed rate cut, which would have needed clearer evidence of labor-market softness.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3020, with resistance around 1.3190.

Silver Falls Below $50 as Fed-Cut Bets Fade

Silver slipped below $50 on Friday, extending its decline for a second session as traders lowered expectations for a December Fed rate cut. The delayed NFP report showed stronger September job gains but unemployment rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years. With the October report skipped, this is the last labor update before the FOMC meeting. Fed Governor Barr also called for caution on additional easing due to persistent inflation. Silver is on track to end the week more than 1% lower.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $52.50, while support is located around $49.50.