Gold and Silver Gain on Fed Speculation (03.13.2025)

EUR/USD fell to 1.0880 amid US-EU tariff disputes but found support as US recession concerns weighed on the dollar.

Yen Supported by BOJ Tightening

The Japanese yen stabilized around 148 per dollar on Wednesday, recovering after two days of declines as a weaker US dollar offset trade conflict concerns. Trump vowed more tariffs after the EU and Canada retaliated against his steel and aluminum duties, escalating tensions.

The yen remained supported by expectations of further BOJ rate hikes, driven by strong wage growth and inflation. Japanese companies approved significant wage increases for the third year, boosting consumer spending and giving the BOJ more flexibility for future hikes.

Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 

Lower US Inflation Drives Gold's Surge

Gold surged to around $2,940 per ounce on Thursday, nearing record highs as escalating trade tensions boosted safe-haven demand. Trump threatened more tariffs on EU goods after retaliatory measures from the EU and Canada, while Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed planned trade protections on copper.

Meanwhile, US inflation data came in lower than expected, easing concerns and giving the Fed more room for a less restrictive policy. However, the long-term impact of tariffs remains uncertain, with inflation risks still looming.

Key resistance stands at $2,955, with further levels at $2,980 and $3,000. Support is at $2,860, followed by $2,830 and $2,790.  

GBP/USD Climbs to 1.2960, Dollar Under Pressure

GBP/USD trades around 1.2960 in Thursday’s Asian session, extending gains for a third day as the US Dollar weakens with recession fears linked to Trump’s policies.

The dollar faces further pressure after February inflation slowed more than expected, raising speculation of an earlier Fed rate cut. Headline inflation fell from 0.5% to 0.2% monthly and from 3.0% to 2.8% yearly, while core inflation dropped to 0.2% monthly and 3.1% yearly. Markets now await US PPI and jobless claims data for further economic signals.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2980, the next resistance levels are 1.3050 and 1.3100. On the downside, support stands at 1.2860, with further levels at 1.2760 and 1.2660 if selling pressure increases. 

Recession Fears Extend Silver Rally

Silver is trading around $33.30 per ounce during Thursday's Asian session, maintaining its upward momentum for the third consecutive session. The precious metal is benefiting from increased safe-haven demand, supported by rising trade tensions and concerns over a potential US recession.

If silver breaks above $32.75, the next resistance levels are $33.15 and $33.80. On the downside, support is at $31.00, with further levels at $30.20 and $29.75 if selling pressure increases.