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Gold Demand Returns as US Fiscal Outlook Clouds Sentiment (05.26.2025)

The euro extended its recovery, nearing 1.1330, helped by muted European headlines and hopes for progress in U.S. trade talks. The Japanese yen broke below 144.00 as hawkish BoJ expectations supported gains.

Gold hovered above $3,300, driven by U.S. credit downgrade fears and G7 tariff threats. GBP/USD edged closer to 1.3400 ahead of key CPI and PMI data, while silver remained near $33.10, underpinned by a weaker dollar and solid industrial demand.

TimeCur.EventForecastPrevious
All DayUSDUnited States - Memorial Day  

EUR/USD Extends Recovery, Eyes 1.1330

EUR/USD extended its rebound for a third session on Wednesday, approaching the 1.1330 level but still trading well below the recent multi-year high of 1.1575. With European newsflow muted during the G7 summit, market focus has turned to U.S. trade developments. Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential progress in talks that could deter the Trump administration from enforcing aggressive tariff plans.

However, confidence is wavering as the 90-day tariff deadline nears, and no firm trade deals have materialized despite repeated announcements.

Key resistance is seen at 1.1425, with further levels at 1.1460 and 1.1580. First support lies at 1.1260, followed by 1.1100 and 1.1050.

R1: 1.1425S1: 1.1260
R2: 1.1460S2: 1.1100
R3: 1.1580S3: 1.1050

Yen Below 144.00 on Hawkish Bets

The Japanese Yen strengthened further on Wednesday, driving USD/JPY below 144.00 and marking a two-week low. Markets increasingly expect the Bank of Japan to hike rates again in 2025, spurred by recent hawkish remarks from Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and persistent inflation concerns. Rising U.S.-China tensions have also fueled demand.

Meanwhile, optimism around a potential U.S.-Japan trade deal adds to bullish sentiment for the yen, while the U.S. dollar remains under pressure with expectations for continued Fed rate cuts.

Resistance is located at 148.60, with further upside barriers at 149.80 and 151.20. Support is seen at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.

R1: 148.60S1: 139.70
R2: 149.80S2: 137.00
R3: 151.20S3: 135.00

Gold Eyes Break Above $3,300 on Improved Demand

Gold regained ground on Wednesday as demand rose with renewed U.S.-China tensions and ongoing fiscal concerns. Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit and the proposed extension of Trump-era tax cuts have raised fears of a ballooning deficit, weakening the dollar and increasing demand for gold.

Additionally, reports that G7 nations may jointly impose tariffs on low-value Chinese goods have fueled risk-off sentiment. Gold climbed to an eight-day high just above $3,300.

The first critical support for gold is seen at the $3250 level, and the first resistance is located at $3370

R1: 3370S1: 3250
R2: 3440S2: 3150
R3: 3500S3: 3025

GBP/USD Nears 1.3400 as Traders Await PMI Data

GBP/USD edged higher toward 1.3400, supported by dollar softness and cautious optimism ahead of key UK economic data. Markets are awaiting April’s CPI on Wednesday and both UK and U.S. PMI data on Thursday.

Trade developments remain a major driver of sentiment, with investors hoping the U.S. administration will scale back tariff threats, though little progress has been seen with the 90-day deadline approaching.

UK inflation is expected to rise, with monthly CPI seen at 1.1% and annual CPI reaching 3.3%, while core CPI may tick up to 3.6%. Thursday’s PMI data could further influence the pair, with modest UK strength and mixed U.S. figures forecast.

The first critical support for GBPUSD is seen at 1.3425, and the first resistance can be seen at 1.3600.

R1: 1.3600S1: 1.3425
R2: 1.3750S2: 1.3165
R3: 1.3850S3: 1.2890

Silver Around $33.10, Supported by Dollar Weakness

Silver hovered near $33.10 on Wednesday after a strong Tuesday rally, supported by broad dollar weakness and renewed demand for precious metals. Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt, and fiscal concerns have all contributed to the metal’s gains.
Despite easing slightly from session highs, silver maintains upside potential in the near term.

The first critical support for Silver is seen at 32.30, and the first resistance is located at 33.80.

R1: 33.80S1: 32.30
R2: 34.20S2: 31.40
R3: 34.90S3: 30.20
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