Gold Hits a New High, EUR/USD Stable (03.31.2025)

Markets opened the week cautiously as investors braced for President Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement.

EUR/USD held firm at around $1.0830 despite stagflation concerns and falling U.S. Treasury yields. The Japanese yen strengthened beyond 149 per dollar, supported by safe-haven demand and hawkish BoJ signals. Gold surged past $3,100 to a record high with potential secondary tariffs on Russia and Iran. GBP/USD rose to 1.2952 on positive trade talks between the UK and US, while silver extended gains to $34.23.

EUR/USD Remains Firm at $1.0830

EUR/USD remained steady around $1.0830 on Monday, showing resilience despite heightened market anxiety over U.S. tariffs and stagflation concerns driven by U.S. inflation data. The pair's stability suggests a cautious market tone, with investors assessing potential repercussions of President Trump's aggressive tariff plans set to be revealed on Wednesday. While the U.S. dollar faced pressure from declining Treasury yields, the euro maintained its footing on broader market risk aversion. However, further strength in the dollar could put downward pressure on EUR/USD in the short term.

Key resistance is at 1.0860, followed by 1.0950 and 1.1000. Support lies at 1.0730, then 1.0660 and 1.0600.

Yen Strengthens; BoJ Warns Against Volatility

The Japanese yen strengthened beyond 149 per dollar, marking a second straight gain. President Trump restated plans for reciprocal tariffs and pushed for tougher trade policies, fueling market caution. Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned against excessive yen volatility and said he remains in close contact with U.S. officials. Meanwhile, hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan also supported the yen, as policymakers indicated further rate hikes if economic and inflation targets are met, citing rising wages and stronger spending.

Key resistance is at 151.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 154.00. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.

Gold Breaks $3,100 Barrier

Gold surged past $3,100, hitting a new record high as safe-haven demand intensified with rising trade war fears. President Trump is reportedly considering broader tariffs in his April 2 announcement, with potential secondary tariffs of 25–50% on Russian oil and new threats against Iran if no nuclear deal is reached. Geopolitical tensions with Trump’s aggressive trade stance pushed investors toward gold. Meanwhile, Fed official Mary Daly said Friday’s inflation data has made her less confident about forecasting two rate cuts this year.

Key resistance is at $3,135, followed by $3,150 and $3,200. Support stands at $3,045, then $3,000 and $2,980.

GBP/USD at 1.2952 on Dollar Decline

GBP/USD climbed to 1.2952 on Monday, supported by dollar weakness with falling U.S. Treasury yields and stagflation concerns following the inflation data. The pound also gained from reports of productive trade talks between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Trump on Sunday. While caution remains ahead of Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement on Wednesday, the positive tone in U.K.-U.S. discussions has offered the pound some lift. Still, rising trade tensions could cap further gains.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3050, resistance levels are at 1.3100 and 1.3150. Support is at 1.2860, followed by 1.2800 and 1.2715.

Silver at $34.23, Profit-Taking Risks Loom

Spot silver climbed to $34.23, extending its rally. A weaker U.S. dollar, down 0.2% against major peers, also supported silver by making it cheaper for foreign buyers. The metal’s rise aligns with gains across the precious metals space, including gold, platinum, and palladium, all poised for monthly increases. While silver may see further upside on market uncertainty, any easing in Trump’s tariff plans could trigger some profit-taking.

If silver breaks above $34.85, resistance levels are at $35.40 and $36.00. Support stands at $33.80, followed by $32.50 and $32.15.