Gold Rallies, FX Markets Brace for Data (04.01.2025)

EUR/USD held firm near $1.0824 after its best quarterly performance since 2022, supported by optimism around Germany’s fiscal reforms but capped by uncertainty over Trump’s upcoming tariff plans.

The Japanese yen hovered near 149.8 despite strong jobs data, as weaker business sentiment and looming U.S. tariffs kept pressure on Japan’s outlook. Gold surged to a record $3,140, its strongest quarter since 1986.

Yen Flat Near 149.8 as Japan Jobs Improve

The Japanese yen hovered near 149.8 per dollar as markets weighed mixed domestic signals. Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in February, beating expectations, but business sentiment in Q1 weakened, reflecting growing concerns about the U.S. tariff impact on Japan’s export-heavy economy. The outlook for further BoJ rate hikes remains uncertain, especially with President Trump’s reciprocal and auto tariffs expected this week. Investors are now closely watching for more clarity on Japan’s monetary stance.

Key resistance is at 151.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 154.00. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.

Gold Hits a Record High with Strong Quarterly Performance

Gold jumped to a record high of $3,140 because of U.S. tariff announcements. Trump’s new tariffs, set to begin Wednesday, are expected to target a wider range of countries and be followed by separate auto tariffs on Thursday. Gold also posted its strongest quarter since 1986, supported by rate cut speculation, central bank buying, and ETF inflows. Investors now look to this week’s U.S. labor market data for clues on the Fed’s next move.

Key resistance is at $3,150, followed by $3,200 and $3,250. Support stands at $3,085, then $3,055 and $3000.

Trade Optimism Keeps Pound Steady

GBP/USD traded near $1.2927 on Tuesday, maintaining stability as markets assessed the tone of recent trade talks between PM Keir Starmer and President Trump. The pair was supported by optimism around the UK’s economic resilience, though looming U.S. tariff announcements and global risk-off sentiment may limit upside. Attention now turns to U.S. data and Fed commentary later this week, which could influence short-term movements in the pair.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3050, resistance levels are at 1.3100 and 1.3150. Support is at 1.2860, followed by 1.2800 and 1.2715.

Silver at $34.09 on Trade Tensions

Silver edged up to $34.09 an ounce during Tuesday’s session, supported by ongoing safe-haven flows as markets brace for economic fallout from Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement. Concerns over inflation and slowing global growth have boosted silver’s appeal, both as an industrial metal and a defensive asset. Supply-side worries and macro uncertainty also support prices. However, this week’s U.S. labor data, particularly ADP and non-farm payrolls, could shift Fed expectations and test silver’s momentum.

If silver breaks above $34.85, resistance levels are at $35.40 and $36.00. Support stands at $33.80, followed by $32.50 and $32.15.