Hawkish Fed Pressures Euro, Metals Gain, Yen Near Intervention Level (01.10.2025)

Fed Hawkishness Pressures EUR/USD Amid Rate Cut Delays

The EUR/USD pair traded slightly bearish around 1.0300 during Friday’s Asian session, pressured by the Fed's decision to delay rate cuts. Markets are awaiting the US December Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report which is due later Friday.

Fed officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Governor Michelle Bowman, emphasized a cautious approach to rate cuts, citing persistent inflation and uncertainty under the incoming Trump administration. These hawkish comments support the US Dollar against the Euro.

In the Eurozone, retail sales rose 1.2% year-on-year in November, down from October's revised 2.1%, offering little support to the Euro. Preliminary December HICP data reduced expectations for a large ECB rate cut, helping to limit the Euro's losses.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0350, with further resistance levels at 1.0460 and 1.0515 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0270, followed by additional support levels at 1.0220 and 1.0125. 

Yen Near Multi-Month Lows as Investors Eye US Jobs Report

The Japanese yen traded near 158.2 per dollar on Friday, staying at multi-month lows amid uncertainty over BOJ rate hikes. Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa called the economy "critical" in overcoming deflation but gave no timeline for action.

Household spending fell 0.4% in November, while income rose 0.7%. The yen remained pressured by the widening US-Japan yield gap and hawkish Fed signals. Investors await the US jobs report to gauge Fed rate-cut prospects.

The key resistance level appears to be 158.60, with a break above it potentially targeting 160.00 and 161.00. On the downside, 154.90 is the first major support, followed by 153.40 and 152.40 if the price moves lower.  

Gold Steady Ahead of US Payroll Data as ETF Demand Rises

Gold held above $2,670 per ounce on Friday, poised for its best week since mid-November. Traders await US payroll data, which is expected to show steady job growth, which could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, aligning with FOMC minutes citing inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies. The World Gold Council reported that gold-backed ETFs saw their first inflows in four years, with demand rising in Asia and North American funds recording their first annual inflow since 2020, while European outflows declined.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2685 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2725 and 2750 consequently. On the downside 2630 will be the first support level. 2620 and 2600 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached. 

Rising UK Yields Fail to Lift Pound Amid Capital Outflows

GBP/USD remained weak for a fourth day, trading near 1.2300 on Friday after hitting a low of 1.2238 on Thursday, its lowest since November 2023. The British Pound struggled amid concerns over the UK’s fiscal and inflation outlook, which hurt investor sentiment. Despite long-term UK bond yields rising with the 30-year yield at its highest since 1998 and the 10-year yield at 2008 levels, the Pound saw no support, as capital outflows fueled by inflation and fiscal worries outweighed the benefits of higher yields.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2350. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2410 and 1.2500. On the downside 1.2265 will be the first support level. 1.2190 and 1.2100 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Silver Gains on Renewable Energy Demand and Supply Shortfalls

Silver held above $30 per ounce on Friday, near three-week highs, as the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts and uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies boosted its safe-haven appeal. Strong industrial demand from renewable energy and electronics, coupled with supply disruptions from labor strikes and mining issues, added upward pressure. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties further drove volatility, increasing demand for precious metals like silver.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 30.35 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 30.70 and 31.00 consequently. On the downside 29.85 will be the first support level. 28.50 and 28.00 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.