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Markets Eye ECB and BOE Cuts as Trade Optimism Lifts Dollar (04.29.2025)

The euro slipped to 1.1415 as ECB rate cut bets strengthened, while the pound fell on growing BoE easing expectations. 

The yen edged toward 144 ahead of the BoJ meeting, and gold retreated below $3,330 amid easing trade tensions and a firmer dollar. Silver softened to $33.00 as optimism grew around U.S.-China tariff negotiations. All eyes are now on key U.S. economic data, including Q1 GDP, PCE inflation, and nonfarm payrolls, for clues on Fed policy direction.

TimeCur.EventForecastPrevious
12:30USDGoods Trade Balance (Mar)-143.70B-147.85B
14:00USDCB Consumer Confidence (Apr)87.492.9
14:00 USD JOLTS Job Openings (Mar) 7.480M 7.568M 

Euro Slips as ECB Rate Cut Bets Grow

The EUR/USD dipped to around 1.1415 in early Asian trading Tuesday as the Euro weakened on rising expectations of an ECB rate cut in June. Reuters cited growing confidence among policymakers, with Olli Rehn suggesting rates could fall below neutral.

Investors are also watching US-China trade developments ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. President Trump claimed progress, but Beijing denied active talks. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed recent contact but said China must act. Trade tensions continue to pressure the dollar, potentially supporting the Euro.

Key resistance is at 1.1460, followed by 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1200 and 1.1150.

R1: 1.1460S1: 1.1260
R2: 1.1580S2: 1.1200
R3: 1.1680S3: 1.1150

Yen Under Pressure Ahead of BOJ Decision

The Japanese yen edged closer to 144 per dollar on Monday, continuing last week’s decline as global trade sentiment improved and the dollar strengthened. Markets responded to a private meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, during which both parties stressed the importance of ongoing discussions on currency matters. Meanwhile, Japan’s trade negotiator is set to visit Washington this week, as the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.5%, amid concerns over the economic impact of U.S. tariffs.

Key resistance is at 144.00, with further levels at 145.90 and 146.75. Support stands at 139.70, followed by 137.00 and 135.00.

R1: 144.00S1: 139.70
R2: 145.90S2: 137.00
R3: 146.75S3: 135.00

Gold Retreats as Investors Eye Key Economic Data

Gold fell below $3,330 per ounce on Tuesday as investors monitored tariff talks and awaited key economic data. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said many top U.S. trading partners made "very good" tariff proposals and noted China’s tariff exemptions signal de-escalation efforts. He stressed it is now up to China to act. A modest rebound in the U.S. dollar also pressured gold. Markets are focused on upcoming reports, including Q1 GDP, March PCE inflation, and April nonfarm payrolls, for clues on the economy and Fed policy.

Key resistance is at $3365, followed by $3,405 and $3,500. Support stands at $3250, then $3165 and $3050.

R1: 3365S1: 3250
R2: 3405S2: 3165
R3: 3500S3: 3050

Pound Pressured by BOE Cut Expectations

GBP/USD dipped to approximately 1.3425 during early Asian trading on Tuesday, as a slight rebound in the U.S. dollar put pressure on the pair. The dollar was supported by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, following China’s decision to exempt certain U.S. imports from tariffs, despite its denial of ongoing negotiations.

Meanwhile, expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in May continue to weigh on the pound. Markets are now focused on an upcoming speech by BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, with any dovish remarks likely to add further downside pressure on the GBP.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3430, resistance levels are at 1.3500 and 1.3550. Support is at 1.3200, followed by 1.3050 and 1.2960.

R1: 1.3430S1: 1.3200
R2: 1.3500S2: 1.3050
R3: 1.3550S3: 1.2960

Silver Falls to $33.00 on Trade Optimism

Silver (XAG/USD) slipped to around $33.00 on Tuesday as safe-haven demand eased amid improving U.S.-China trade sentiment and a stronger U.S. dollar. Optimism grew after Trump suggested tariff rollbacks and China granted exemptions. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed ongoing talks and positive proposals. Markets now await key US data, Q1 GDP, PCE inflation, and Nonfarm Payrolls for clues on Fed policy.

Technically, the first resistance level is located at 33.80. In case of its breach 34.20 and 34.85 could be monitored respectively. On the downside, first support is at 32.50. 31.40 and 30.20 would become the next support levels if this level is passed.

R1: 33.80S1: 32.50
R2: 34.20S2: 31.40
R3: 34.85S3: 30.20
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