Markets Eye JOLTS Report as Recession and Trade Concerns Grow (03.11.2025)

After the growth data below expectations from Japan earlier today, the first event to watch will be the Eurogroup meetings. However, the market will mainly focus on the JOLTS Job Openings report, which will be released at 14:00 GMT.

In a Fox News interview, Trump dismissed recession fears as a "transition period" but later admitted the U.S. might face a "rough patch." His administration blamed inflation and market instability on Biden, avoiding its own tariff impact.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, speaking late on Sunday, mentioned that rising uncertainty among businesses could weaken demand in the U.S. economy, but emphasized that this did not warrant a change in interest rates.

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, falling short of the expected 160,000. January's job growth was also revised down from 143,000 to 125,000.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated on Sunday that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, imposed by President Donald Trump in February, will go into effect on Wednesday and will not be delayed.

Looking at bonds, we can see pullbacks in the U.S. 2- and 10-year yields, while German 10-year yields have stabilized around 2.81%. Chinese 10-year yields have risen from historic lows of 1.60% to around 1.90%, continuing their upward trend.

Safe-Haven Yen Gains on Economic Risks, BOJ Policy Uncertainty

The yen rose to 147 per dollar, its strongest in five months, as US recession fears fueled safe-haven demand. Trump acknowledged economic risks, while Japan’s GDP growth was revised down to 2.2% from 2.8% due to weak consumption. The BOJ is expected to hold rates in March but may hike later this year. Finance Minister Kato warned of the real-world impact of FX volatility.

Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 

Gold Strengthens on Trade Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices climbed toward $2,900 per ounce on Tuesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and rising safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty and escalating trade tensions. President Trump acknowledged recession risks after the U.S. delayed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, while China imposed new tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited economic concerns but ruled out immediate rate cuts. Investors are now awaiting U.S. inflation data for further guidance on the Fed’s policy outlook.

Key resistance stands at $2,923, with further levels at $2,955 and $3,000. Support is at $2,860, followed by $2,830 and $2,790. 

UK Budget Forecasts and GDP Data Set to Shape Pound’s Next Move

The pound hovered around $1.29, staying near a four-month high as dollar weakness persisted amid U.S. economic concerns and tariff risks. Sterling remained supported by expectations that UK interest rates will stay high, with traders adjusting BoE rate cut forecasts to 52 bps for 2025. Investors now await January GDP data for economic insights, while the UK’s budget watchdog will release updated economic and borrowing forecasts on March 26, potentially influencing market sentiment.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2920, the next resistance levels are 1.2980 and 1.3050. On the downside, support stands at 1.2860, with further levels at 1.2760 and 1.2660 if selling pressure increases.

Trade Uncertainty and Fed Stance Keep Silver Prices Elevated

Silver held at $32.50 per ounce after a 4.4% weekly gain, as trade tensions and U.S. inflation data kept investors cautious. Uncertainty grew after Trump warned of new tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber, following a U.S. delay on 25% tariffs for Canadian and Mexican goods. Canada upheld retaliatory measures, while China’s tariffs on U.S. agriculture took effect. Concerns deepened after Trump avoided recession and inflation questions in a Fox News interview. Fed Chair Powell signaled no rush for rate cuts despite rising economic risks.

If silver breaks above $32.75, the next resistance levels are $33.15 and $33.80. On the downside, support is at $31.00, with further levels at $30.20 and $29.75 if selling pressure increases.

Bitcoin Drops 27% from Record High Amid Market Selloff

Bitcoin fell to $78,000 on Monday, down 27% from its all-time high, as crypto and stock markets lost a combined $6 trillion. Crypto market capitalization dropped 4% to $2.67 trillion, its lowest since November 9, shedding $1.2 trillion since December 17. Bitcoin hit a multi-month low, falling from its January peak of $107,000. Stocks mirrored the decline, with the S&P 500 losing $1.4 trillion—its worst single-day drop since 2022. The sharp selloff reflects a shift from risk assets, with the Fear and Greed Index plunging to 14, a two-year low, signaling extreme risk aversion. This contrasts with last year’s post-Trump election rally, where the index peaked at 92.

Technically, the first support for BTC is at $78k, with subsequent levels at $73k and $65k. On the upside, the initial resistance is at $89k, followed by $95k and $100k.

Brent Crude Struggles at $69 as Global Demand Risks Mount

Brent crude hovered around $69 per barrel on Tuesday as concerns grew that U.S. tariffs could slow economic growth and weaken oil demand. Tariffs imposed by President Trump on major suppliers like Canada and Mexico, along with China’s retaliatory measures, heightened fears of a global slowdown.

China’s deepening deflationary pressures further weighed on crude prices despite stimulus efforts. On the supply side, Russia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak confirmed OPEC+ plans to boost production in April but noted the decision could be reassessed if market conditions shift.

Technically, the first support is at $68.1, with subsequent levels at $65 and $63.6. On the upside, the initial resistance is at $70.2, followed by $73.3 and $75.80.