Markets Hold as Fed Signals Caution; Yen Strengthens (11.06.2025)

Major currencies and commodities traded cautiously on Thursday after stronger U.S. labor and services data reduced expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year. EUR/USD steadied near 1.15 after a five-day slide, supported by the ECB’s steady guidance. 

The Japanese yen strengthened above 154 as wage growth reinforced expectations that the BOJ could continue normalizing policy. Gold held near recent lows as hawkish Fed signals limited safe-haven demand, while the British pound rebounded ahead of the BoE’s decision. Silver eased after recent short-squeeze driven gains, with traders reassessing the Fed outlook.

EUR/USD Steadies After Five-Day Decline

The euro steadied near 1.15 on Thursday, pausing a five-day decline after fresh US data reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut. The ECB held rates and maintained its outlook on growth and inflation, while the dollar strengthened on hawkish Powell comments and stronger ADP jobs and ISM services data.

Technically, 1.1450 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1530.

Stronger Wage Data Lifts Yen Above 154

The Japanese yen strengthened past 154 per dollar on Thursday, supported by expectations that the BOJ will stay on its tightening path. Nominal wages rose 1.9% in September, up from 1.5% in August, driven by stable base pay and slightly higher overtime, though real wages fell 1.4% as inflation remained at 3.4%, marking a ninth monthly decline. BOJ Governor Ueda said the 2026 wage outlook will be key in determining when tightening resumes after the bank kept policy unchanged last week.

Technically, resistance stands near 154.40, while support is firm at 153.20.

Gold Stalls Near Lows After Hawkish Fed Signals

Gold hovered near $3,980 per ounce on Thursday, trading close to a four-week low as investors further trimmed US rate cut expectations. Private payrolls rose 42,000 in October (vs. 25,000 expected) and the ISM Services PMI hit an eight-month high, reinforcing limited room for additional easing while inflation remains above target and the government shutdown delays key labor data. Hawkish Fed comments also supported the view that the recent cut may be the last this year.

From a technical perspective, support is around 3930, and resistance is at 4010.

Sterling Firms as Traders Await BoE

The British pound rose to 1.3060 in Thursday’s Asian session, recovering above 1.3000 after weeks of declines in what appears to be a technical rebound ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision later today. In the U.S., private-sector indicators are guiding sentiment due to the government shutdown, while the UK calendar remains quiet ahead of the policy announcement.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3010, with resistance around 1.3090.

Silver Retreats After Short-Squeeze Rally

Silver slipped on Thursday after briefly rising to $48.40 in Asian trade, giving back part of Wednesday’s gains. Stronger U.S. data reinforced expectations that the Fed will delay further rate cuts, especially as inflation remains elevated and official labor data is delayed by the government shutdown. Silver had recently hit record highs amid a short squeeze and liquidity strain in London, before easing on profit-taking.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $48.50, while support is located around $47.00.