Markets Lift as Fed Cut Expectations Build (11.25.2025)

Global markets turned cautiously optimistic on Tuesday as expectations for a December Fed rate cut strengthened. Gold climbed toward 4,140 dollars and silver held near 51.30 as dovish Fed signals pushed rate-cut odds sharply higher. 

In FX, EUR/USD inched up around 1.1525–1.1530 on a softer dollar, while the yen firmed toward 156.6 per dollar amid rising speculation that Japan may intervene to slow its decline.

EUR/USD Gains on Fed Dovishness

EUR/USD extended its gains for a second session on Tuesday, though momentum remained muted as the pair held within Monday’s broad range. It is trading around 1.1500–1.1530, with daily gains under 0.10%. Dovish Fed comments have reinforced expectations for a December rate cut, keeping the dollar below late-May highs and offering support to the euro.

Technically, 1.1470 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1625.

Yen Rises on Intervention Hopes

The Japanese yen firmed to around 156.6 per dollar on Tuesday, recovering Monday’s losses as confidence grew that authorities may intervene to stop further depreciation. Over the weekend, Takuji Aida, adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, said Japan is ready to step into the FX market to offset the economic damage from a weak yen. His remarks echoed recent signals from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, strengthening expectations of possible intervention.

Technically, resistance stands near 157.95, while support is firm at 155.20.

Gold Rises on Stronger Fed Cut Bets

Gold climbed toward $4,140 per ounce on Tuesday, extending Monday’s gains as expectations for a December US rate cut strengthened following fresh dovish Fed signals. The metal jumped nearly 2% after Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a December cut, citing continued labor-market weakness, while NY Fed President John Williams also said another near-term reduction is possible. Markets now assign an 81% probability to a 25bps December cut, up from about 40% a week ago.

From a technical view, support is seen near $4100, while resistance is positioned around $4170.

GBP Steadies Before UK Budget

The British pound held just below $1.31 as markets awaited the November 26 UK budget. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves must find tens of billions to meet fiscal rules, and reports that she may avoid tax increases briefly unsettled investors. The OBR is expected to downgrade growth forecasts for 2026 and beyond, leaving a £20–30 billion gap that increases the likelihood of future tax hikes. Recent data underline the pressure, with government borrowing at a record high outside the pandemic, stalled business activity, sharply lower retail sales, and weakening consumer confidence.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3020, with resistance around 1.3190.

Silver Steady Near $51 on Fed Bets

Silver extended its advance on Tuesday, holding near 51.30 during the Asian session. Growing expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in December, combined with projections of lower US Treasury issuance, are providing support. Market pricing now points to a 69% probability of a 25bps cut next month, up sharply from about 44% the week before.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $52.20, while support is located around $50.50.