Markets Rise on Renewed U.S.–China Tensions (10.13.2025)

The euro held around 1.1620 as investors balanced U.S.–China tariff uncertainty and the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. 

The yen weakened toward 152 amid calmer trade sentiment, while gold surged above $4,040, approaching record highs on renewed safe-haven demand. Sterling steadied near 1.3345 as mixed policy signals from the BoE and Fed limited volatility. Meanwhile, silver rallied past $51, supported by geopolitical risks, tightening supply, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts.

EUR/USD Steadies amid U.S.–China Tariff Uncertainty

EUR/USD hovered around 1.1620 in Asian trading on Monday after a 0.5% gain, supported by a weaker dollar amid ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions and the extended government shutdown. Trump’s 100% tariff threat and China’s vow to retaliate added uncertainty, while delayed federal paychecks pressured the greenback. The euro found support from easing political tensions in France and ECB minutes that reaffirmed confidence in reaching the 2% inflation goal.

Technically, 1.1580 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1650.

JPY Slips Toward 152 amid Calm Trade and Political Shifts

The yen slipped toward 152 per dollar on Monday in thin holiday trading, giving back part of Friday’s gains as easing U.S.–China trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand. The currency had earlier surged over 1% after Trump’s 100% tariff threat on Chinese imports. Investors also focused on Tokyo’s political scene, where Komeito’s exit from the ruling coalition and LDP leader Sanae Takaichi’s potential rise to prime minister raised expectations for new fiscal stimulus.

Resistance is at 152.90, while support holds at 151.10.

Gold Tops $4,040 on Safe-Haven Demand

Gold climbed above $4,040 per ounce on Monday, nearing record highs as renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and global uncertainty lifted safe-haven demand. Trump first threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods before softening his stance, saying Washington seeks cooperation. Beijing defended its rare-earth export curbs and warned of countermeasures. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown disrupted key data releases, while markets anticipated further Fed rate cuts. Trump also confirmed the end of the Gaza conflict ahead of his visit to Israel.

From a technical perspective, support is around 4000, and resistance is at 4080.

Pound Little Changed amid Shutdown and Trade Risks

GBP/USD hovered near 1.3345 in early Asian trading on Monday as the dollar strengthened amid U.S.–China trade tensions and the prolonged government shutdown. BoE’s Catherine Mann said policy should stay restrictive to support growth, while UK Treasury’s James Murray ruled out emergency funds for pay rises. Dovish Fed comments citing soft inflation and potential rate cuts limited further dollar gains.

From a technical perspective, support is around 1.3310, and resistance is at 1.3390.

Silver Rallies Past $51 as Geopolitical Risks Rise

Silver jumped over 2% to above $51 per ounce, hitting a record high as U.S.–China trade tensions, political uncertainty, and Fed rate-cut expectations fueled safe-haven demand. Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods but later signaled readiness to negotiate with Xi. Geopolitical risks, including the U.S. shutdown, French turmoil, and Japan’s leadership uncertainty, added support, while tightening London silver supply extended the rally.

From a technical perspective, resistance is observed at 52.20, while support is located at 50.30.