Peace Talks Lift Euro, Inflation Sinks Yen (02.13.2025)

The euro strengthened to $1.04, supported by Ukraine-Russia peace talks despite strong U.S. inflation data limiting Fed rate cut expectations.

Yen Below 154, Rate Cut Bets Reduced

The Japanese yen weakened past 154 per dollar, hitting its lowest level in over a week, as strong U.S. inflation data prompted traders to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets now anticipate just one quarter-point reduction this year. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda provided no clear indication regarding future interest rates, reaffirming the BOJ's commitment to its current policy. However, BOJ board member Naoki Tamura hinted at a possible rate hike in the latter half of fiscal 2025.

The key resistance level is at 154.90, with a break above potentially opening the door to 156.00 and 157.00. On the downside, initial support stands at 151.90, followed by 151.25 and 149.20 if the decline continues.

Gold Near Peak Level Despite Fed Hawkishness

Gold prices remained near a record high above $2,900 per ounce, as investors turned to trusted assets with rising trade tensions and economic uncertainty. The White House announced that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could be introduced as early as Thursday, following his 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. These add to existing tariffs, including 10% on Chinese goods and 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, though the latter are paused. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts and weighing on gold’s appeal.

Technically, resistance stands at 2,949, with further levels at 2,975 and 3,000. Support is at 2,885, followed by 2,830 and 2,760 if declines continue.

GBP/USD Supported by Peace Deal Hopes

The GBP/USD traded at $1.246, holding steady with global market optimism. The pound found support from peace deal hopes between Ukraine and Russia but struggled against a stronger U.S. dollar, supported by rising Treasury yields and recent inflation data. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts has kept the dollar firm, while UK economic concerns, including a potential GDP contraction, weigh on the pound. With upcoming U.S. PPI data, GBP/USD could face further pressure.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2500. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2600 and 1.2650. On the downside 1.2340 will be the first support level. 1.2265 and 1.2100 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Silver Prices Soar on Electrification Demand

Silver rose above $32 per ounce, nearing a three-month high with high demand in the electrification sector, offsetting concerns over a hawkish Fed. The US ISM manufacturing PMI's unexpected rebound improved the manufacturing outlook, while China, India, and Indonesia encouraged investments in solar and wind power. Meanwhile, the US inflation data reduced expectations for lower Fed borrowing costs, increasing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.

The first resistance level will be 32.50 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 33.00 and 33.50. On the downside, 31.40 will be the first support level. 30.90 and 30.20 are the next levels to observe if the first support level is breached.