Steady Markets Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data (10.24.2025)

The euro hovered near $1.1620 on Friday as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data expected to show headline and core CPI above 3%. 

The dollar firmed slightly, while the yen weakened beyond 152 amid expectations of fresh fiscal stimulus under Japan’s new leadership. Gold and silver rebounded on renewed geopolitical tensions, with traders eyeing U.S.–China developments. Meanwhile, the pound slipped toward $1.33 after soft U.K. inflation data fueled speculation of early BoE rate cuts.

Euro Steady Ahead of Key U.S. Inflation Data

EUR/USD was steady near 1.1620 in Friday’s Asian session, while the dollar rose about 0.05% ahead of the US September inflation report. Traders mostly ignored new data, focusing on Washington’s trade stance with China and the 23-day government shutdown. Markets expect the CPI to show both headline and core inflation above 3%.

From a technical view, the euro faces resistance near 1.1650, with strong support around 1.1575.

Yen Weakens Past 152 on Stimulus Hopes

The yen weakened past 152 per dollar, nearing an eight-month low on expectations that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will unveil a major stimulus package next month. Reports indicate it may exceed last year’s ¥13.9 trillion plan to ease household inflation. Takaichi is expected to maintain expansionary policies, while the BoJ is likely to keep rates unchanged next week, with the next hike anticipated in January.

Technically, resistance stands near 153.00, while support is firm at 150.30.

Gold Gains Ahead of U.S. Inflation Report

Gold rose to around $4,130 per ounce on Friday, snapping a two-day decline as trade headlines and geopolitical tensions lifted safe-haven demand. Reports indicated that the US may introduce export restrictions on China involving American-made software, though President Donald Trump later confirmed a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Investors now await the upcoming US CPI report for further policy direction.

From a technical view, key support lies near $4,080, while resistance is seen around $4,155.

Pound Falls as Soft Inflation Fuels BoE Cut Bets

The British pound slipped toward $1.33, its lowest in a week, after inflation data missed expectations, fueling speculation of early Bank of England rate cuts. Headline inflation held at 3.8% in September, below the 4% forecast, while core inflation eased to 3.5%. The softer figures provided some relief for Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the November 26 budget. Government borrowing reached £99.8 billion in H1, £7.2 billion above estimates, and markets now anticipate potential rate cuts early next year as inflation and labor pressures moderate.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3300, with resistance around 1.3425.

Silver Rebounds on Rising Tensions

Silver climbed above $48.90 in Friday’s Asian session, rebounding as trade and geopolitical tensions increased safe-haven demand. The US is reportedly weighing export limits on Chinese software purchases, though Trump confirmed plans to meet Xi Jinping. Washington also blacklisted Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil to pressure Moscow over Ukraine. Despite the recovery, silver remains about 10% below last week’s record highs amid profit-taking.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $49.25, while support is located around $47.50.