Trade Tensions Ease While GDP Data Surprises (02.14.2025)

The dollar weakened as easing trade tensions and expectations of a softer PCE price index pressured the currency, strengthening the yen and commodities like gold and silver.

Yen Rallies as Trump Delays Tariffs

The Japanese yen traded around 153 per dollar on Friday, following a 1% gain in the previous session. The yen strengthened as the dollar retreated sharply after President Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs, easing concerns over escalating trade tensions. The latest US PPI report also hinted that core PCE inflation, the Fed’s key metric due later this month, could come in lower than expected.

Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated that Japan would respond appropriately to any US reciprocal tariffs, while the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance continued to support the yen. Although uncertainty remains about a potential rate hike in March, the central bank is widely expected to introduce further increases later this year.

Technically, 154.90 is the key resistance level, with further targets at 156.00 and 157.00. On the downside, 151.90 is the first major support, followed by 151.25 and 149.20 if the pair moves lower.

Gold Steady, Set for Seventh Weekly Gain

Gold traded at $2,930 per ounce, maintaining its position for a seventh weekly gain. On Thursday, President Trump instructed federal agencies to explore ways to align U.S. tariffs with those of other countries, though without immediate implementation. While the delay eased some concerns, fears of escalating global trade tensions persisted, driving investors toward gold.

Meanwhile, U.S. producer inflation exceeded expectations, following strong consumer inflation data earlier in the week. This reinforced the view that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates soon. Despite this, gold remained resilient, supported by trade war uncertainties and a weaker dollar, which made the metal more affordable for foreign buyers.

The first resistance is at $2,949, with further levels at $2,975 and $3,000 if the price moves higher. On the downside, $2,885 is the first support level, followed by $2,830 and $2,760 if selling pressure increases.

GBP/USD Up on Positive Growth Data

The British pound climbed to $1.2560 after preliminary data showed the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2024, defying expectations of a 0.1% contraction and outperforming the Bank of England’s forecasts. This puts the economy slightly ahead of where it was when Labour took office in July, offering some relief to the government.

However, challenges remain as the Office for Budget Responsibility is set to release an updated economic and fiscal outlook on March 26, with reports indicating a lowered growth forecast. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.5% last week, its third reduction since beginning its easing cycle in August 2024, while also downgrading its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%.

1.2600 is the first resistance level, with further targets at 1.2650 and 1.2700 if the pair moves higher. On the downside, 1.2340 serves as the first support level, followed by 1.2265 and 1.2100 if selling pressure intensifies.

Silver at $32.90, Asian Demand Fuels Rise

Silver jumped to $32.90 on Friday morning, fueled by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Additionally, strong demand from China and other Asian markets has further supported silver prices.

From a technical perspective, $33.15 is the first resistance level, with further targets at $33.80 and $34.50 if the price breaks higher. On the downside, $31.40 serves as the first support level, followed by $30.90 and $30.20 if selling pressure intensifies.