Euro Gains, Risk Appetite Returns (07.28.2025)

U.S.–EU trade deal eased global tensions, lifting the euro and increasing risk appetite.

The EUR/USD climbed on hopes of a more diplomatic trade stance, while safe-haven demand for gold and the yen waned. Silver advanced, supported by industrial demand, and the pound found modest relief despite looming BoE rate cut bets. Traders now turn to the Fed’s decision and a busy U.S. data slate for the next catalyst.

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
16:00	USD	2-Year Note Auction		3.786%
16:00	USD	5-Year Note Auction		3.879%

Euro Climbs as Trade Deal Calms Markets

EUR/USD rose on Monday, lifted by risk-on sentiment after the U.S. and EU finalized a major trade agreement. The 15% tariff compromise, down from the threatened 30%, improved optimism over a more diplomatic trade stance, driving broad euro strength. With expectations that the Fed will keep rates steady this week and strike a cautious tone, the euro may see further gains.

EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1830, with support at 1.1660.

R1: 1.1830	S1: 1.1660
R2: 1.1900	S2: 1.1590
R3: 1.2000	S3: 1.1500

USD/JPY Nears 148 Ahead of BoJ Decision

The Japanese yen weakened toward 148 per dollar, marking its third straight day of declines. Markets responded to easing trade tensions after the U.S.–EU agreement, which halved proposed tariffs to 15%. This followed recent deals with Japan and Indonesia, further dampening demand for defensive currencies. Attention now shifts to U.S.–China trade talks in Stockholm and the Bank of Japan’s upcoming decision, where no rate change is expected but an inflation outlook revision is likely.

The pair is seeing resistance at 148.50, with support at 147.50.

R1: 148.50	S1: 147.50
R2: 149.30	S2: 146.40
R3: 150.00	S3: 145.20

Gold Steadies as Traders Eye Fed

Gold is pressured by a decline in safe-haven flows. The U.S.–EU trade pact, which includes a 15% tariff and large investment pledges, mirrored elements of the earlier U.S.–Japan agreement. Attention now turns to a packed economic calendar, including the Fed meeting, JOLTS, ADP, payrolls, and PCE data. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, any dovish hints could reignite demand for gold.

Gold is testing resistance at $3,350, with support at $3,320.

R1: 3350	S1: 3320
R2: 3367	S2: 3285
R3: 3420	S3: 3250

Pound Finds Support, BoE Cut Bets Limit Upside

The GBP/USD pair remained range-bound during Monday’s Asian session, hovering around 1.3450 after a mild recovery from last week’s drop toward 1.3400. While the rebound signals some relief, upward momentum is limited as traders brace for a busy week of U.S. economic data, including the Fed’s policy decision, Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and nonfarm payrolls, all of which could sway the dollar’s trajectory. The recent U.S.–EU trade deal has eased some safe-haven demand for the greenback, offering light support to sterling. Still, looming expectations of an August rate cut by the Bank of England continue to cap gains. With no major UK data on the calendar, broader dollar sentiment is likely to remain the key driver for the pair.

The pair faces resistance at 1.3480, with initial support at 1.3270.

R1: 1.3480	S1: 1.3270
R2: 1.3600	S2: 1.3140
R3: 1.3640	S3: 1.3380

Silver Steady, Risk Appetite Builds

Silver gained 0.3% to trade at $38.25 per ounce Monday, supported by easing trade tensions and a modest dip in the U.S. dollar. The recent U.S.–EU agreement, which cut proposed tariffs in half, improved appetite for industrial and risk-sensitive assets. As silver benefits from both safe-haven and industrial demand, it remains supported even as gold loses momentum. Traders now await this week’s key U.S. data and Fed commentary for short-term direction.

Silver faces resistance at $39.50, with support at $37.40.

R1: 39.50	S1: 37.40
R2: 40.10	S2: 35.50
R3: 41.90	S3: 33.90

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