Trade Tensions Lift Safe Havens (02.26.2026)

Markets remained cautious as a new 10% U.S. global tariff weighed on risk sentiment. The euro and pound stayed under pressure near recent lows, while the yen rebounded on renewed speculation around Bank of Japan tightening. 

In commodities, gold held near four-week highs and silver surged toward $90 as geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns increased safe-haven demand, even as expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts remained limited.

Euro Faces Headwinds

The euro struggled under $1.18 as a new 10% global U.S. tariff took effect, dampening investor confidence. Market attention now shifts to February inflation data from Germany, France, and Spain, which will provide vital signals for the ECB’s next interest rate decisions.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1840, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1750.

Yen Rebounds Past 156

The yen climbed back past 156 per dollar, snapping a two-day slide. Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled potential near-term rate hikes, supported by new reflationist board appointments. However, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent warnings against rapid tightening continue to cloud the Bank of Japan’s path forward.

Technically, resistance stands near 156.70, while support is firm at 153.50.

Gold Nears Four-Week High

Gold stayed firm above $5,180 per ounce, hovering near a four-week high. Safe-haven demand intensified as Washington sanctioned over 30 entities linked to Iranian oil and weapons ahead of today's nuclear talks in Geneva. However, upside remains capped by U.S. trade policy shifts and sticky inflation, which have led traders to scale back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Gold sees support near $5105, while resistance is around $5200.

Pound Near One-Month Lows

Sterling remained around $1.35 as a new 10% global U.S. tariff took effect. While lower than the feared 15% rate, the levy offers little relief for UK firms. Trade groups warn that shifting U.S. policies and global volatility continue to make long-term business planning difficult.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3360, with resistance around 1.3540.

Silver Rallies Toward $90

Silver surged over 3% to approach $90 per ounce, hitting a one-month high. Safe-haven demand intensified due to escalating geopolitical tensions and new U.S. tariffs. However, the rally was tempered by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the near term.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $90.50 while support is located around $87.80.