The upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, is anticipated to introduce significant volatility across financial markets. Historically, elections have influenced market dynamics, and the current race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is no exception.
Recent analyses suggest that a Trump victory could benefit equity markets in the short term, particularly sectors like banking, cryptocurrency, energy, and health insurance, due to his pro-business policies. Conversely, Harris's policies might favor sectors such as homebuilding, healthcare, and renewable energy, focusing on tax incentives, healthcare cost reductions, and environmental commitments.
Investors are preparing for potential market fluctuations, with volatility indices reflecting heightened uncertainty. The Ice BofA Move index, indicating future Treasury market movements, surged nearly 40% in October, reaching its highest in over a year. Similarly, the VIX index, which measures stock market volatility, has shown unusual highs relative to actual volatility.
Given these conditions, it's recommended for investors to monitor their portfolios closely and consider strategies to mitigate potential risks. Maintaining adequate liquidity and staying informed about market developments can help navigate the anticipated volatility during this election period.
Eurozone Private Sector Growth Stagnates as Demand WeakensThe Eurozone's private sector output maintained slight growth in February, though the pace remained unchanged from the start of the year, according to the latest HCOB Flash PMI® survey by S&P Global. Weak demand, falling new orders, and job reductions signaled ongoing challenges, while input cost inflation surged to its highest level in nearly two years, leading to faster increases in output prices.
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U.S. Jobless Claims Edge Higher Amid Stable MarketThe number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased slightly for the week ending February 15, with initial jobless claims reaching 219,000, up 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The prior week's claims were adjusted upward by 1,000, bringing the total from 213,000 to 214,000.
Detail Euro Stabilizes, Yen Slips Despite BOJ Hawkishness (02.21.2025)The euro held steady near 1.0500 ahead of key PMI data, while the yen weakened past 150 despite rising inflation and BOJ’s hawkish stance.
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