This week, markets reacted to economic data and policy shifts, with the Dollar Index ending a nine-week rally. Major currencies gained against the dollar, driven by inflation dynamics and central bank signals. Commodities like gold and silver declined on easing geopolitical risks, while U.S. Treasury yields and equities saw mixed performances amid nuanced economic trends.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 111.7 in November, up 2.1 points from October. The Present Situation Index climbed to 140.9 (+4.8), while the Expectations Index edged up to 92.3 (+0.4), staying well above the 80 threshold that signals recession risk.
Sales fell 17.3% MoM to 610,000, marking the steepest drop since 2013 due to hurricanes and affordability issues. The median home price rose to $437,300, while inventory increased to a 9.5-month supply.
The RBNZ cut rates by 50bps to 4.25%, its third consecutive cut, as inflation slowed to 2.2%. Weak economic activity and subdued employment growth prompted expectations for further easing.
New orders rose 0.2% MoM to $286.6 billion, driven by a 0.5% increase in transportation. Business investment fell 0.2%, following a 0.3% rise in September.
The economy grew 2.8% annualized, unchanged from initial estimates. Personal spending rose 3.5%, and fixed investment increased 1.7%. Net trade negatively impacted growth by 0.57 percentage points.
Initial claims held steady at 213,000, with the 4-week moving average at 217,000. Continuing claims rose to 1.907 million, the highest since November 2021.
The index fell to 40.2, indicating contraction for the 12th straight month. Production and employment slowed, while new orders rose slightly above the year-to-date average.
Core PCE rose 2.8% YoY, the largest increase in six months, meeting market expectations.
Annual inflation rose to 2.2%, the highest in four months, with core inflation reaching 3%.
Inflation climbed to 2.3% as smaller energy price declines eased the annual comparison. Core inflation held steady at 2.7%.
Hiring, separations, and quits remain stable as the labor market shows resilience.
DetailOutput slips, hiring stagnates, and cost pressures mount as policy uncertainty weighs on factories.
Detail Markets Brace for Trade Tensions as Dollar Firms and Gold Surges (04.02.2025)The U.S. dollar firmed as markets awaited new tariff details from the White House, fueling volatility across currencies and commodities.
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