Traders Await Fed Minutes and Inflation Data (11.18.2025)

Global markets traded cautiously on Tuesday as investors awaited key U.S. data and central bank updates. The euro held near $1.16 amid cautious ECB remarks and upgraded Eurozone growth forecasts, while the yen weakened toward a 10-month low ahead of fiscal discussions in Japan. 

Gold and silver extended losses as rate-cut expectations faded, and the pound slipped after the UK scrapped planned tax hikes, reinforcing December BoE cut bets. Overall sentiment remained restrained as traders awaited the FOMC minutes and delayed U.S. jobs report.

EUR/USD Stable on Cautious ECB Tone

The euro held near $1.16 in quiet trading, with investors looking to upcoming ECB remarks and postponed US data for clearer direction. ECB Vice President de Guindos said inflation is moving in the right direction but cautioned about risks linked to tariffs and sovereign debt. At the same time, the European Commission raised its 2025 Eurozone growth forecast to 1.3%, supported by stronger export demand from the United States.

Technically, 1.1580 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1670.

Yen Slides as Japan Eyes Fiscal Support

The Japanese yen traded near 155.2 per dollar, close to its weakest level in ten months, as markets awaited a meeting between Prime Minister Takaichi and BOJ Governor Ueda. The discussions follow Japan’s first economic contraction in six quarters, raising expectations of a stronger fiscal response. Policymakers have also expressed concern over the yen’s swift decline.

Technically, resistance stands near 155.20, while support is firm at 154.00.

Gold Softens as Markets Await FOMC Minutes

Gold eased toward $4,020 per ounce on Tuesday, extending its decline for a fourth session as expectations for a December US rate cut continued to fade. The absence of fresh US data and firm messaging from Fed officials kept sentiment cautious. Traders now await Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Thursday’s delayed September jobs report, with the odds of a December cut falling to about 43%.

From a technical view, support is seen near $3947, while resistance is positioned around $4073.

GBP/USD Pressured by Reeves’ Tax Shift

GBP/USD stayed weak near 1.3150 on Tuesday as the Pound softened after Chancellor Rachel Reeves scrapped planned income-tax hikes, heightening fiscal concerns despite a lower deficit outlook from the OBR. Markets expect her to pursue alternative revenue measures through threshold and salary-sacrifice adjustments. Recent soft UK data, including flat Q3 growth and a drop in September GDP, has reinforced expectations of a December BoE rate cut. Traders now await upcoming inflation figures and flash PMIs for clearer signs of economic cooling.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3050, with resistance around 1.3190.

Silver Slips as Fed Cut Bets Fade

Silver (XAG/USD) extended its decline on Tuesday, trading near $49.50 as fading expectations for a December Fed rate cut pressured the metal. Markets now assign a 43% chance of a 25 bp cut, down from 62% a week ago. Investors await Wednesday’s Fed Minutes and Thursday’s September jobs report for clearer signals. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that labor-market risks now outweigh inflation concerns, while Governor Christopher Waller said he supports a December cut amid slowing hiring.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $54.40, while support is located around $47.70.