Dollar Gains Ground Before US-China Talks (05.09.2025)

EUR/USD edged higher near 1.1230, supported by a weaker dollar but capped by ECB rate cut expectations. The yen slipped past 145 as a preliminary US-UK trade deal and Fed hawkishness lifted the greenback.

Yen Falls Past 145 as Dollar Strengthens

The Japanese yen weakened past 145 per dollar, hovering near a one-month low as the U.S. dollar strengthened with improving global trade sentiment and diminishing expectations of near-term U.S. rate cuts. The greenback gained momentum after President Trump announced a preliminary trade deal with the UK, the first since broad U.S. tariffs were introduced last month. He also signaled that tariffs on China could be eased, depending on the outcome of high-level trade talks set for this weekend in Switzerland.

Adding pressure on the yen, Fed Chair Powell dismissed the idea of a preemptive rate cut, citing persistent inflation risks and labor market concerns. In Japan, personal spending rose more than expected in March, suggesting resilience in consumption, though a third straight monthly drop in real wages highlighted broader economic challenges.

Resistance stands at 145.90, with further levels at 146.75 and 149.80. Support is found at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.

Gold Slips Toward $3,290 on Trade Optimism

Gold extended losses for a third day, dropping toward $3,290 as market appetite for risk improved ahead of U.S.-China trade talks. The announcement of a U.S.-UK trade deal also contributed to reduced safe-haven demand. The Fed held rates steady as expected, warning of risks to inflation and jobs but avoiding any hint of preemptive cuts. Still, gold is poised for a weekly gain.

Resistance is seen at $3,360, $3,430, and $3,500, while support holds at $3,270, $3,200, and $3,165.

Pound Steadies with Trade Deal Relief

The GBP/USD pair opened Thursday with gains following the Bank of England’s expected 25 basis point rate cut, but the pound’s momentum faded as attention turned to U.S. trade developments. By Friday morning, the pair was trading around 1.3240. 

Sentiment shifted toward the U.S. dollar after the Trump administration announced an upcoming trade deal with the UK, helping Britain avoid steep reciprocal tariffs originally set to resume on July 9. While some relief came from Trump’s earlier ‘Liberation Day’ delay, a broad 10% tariff on all UK imports to the U.S. remains on track, potentially weighing on sentiment. Refined ethanol has been fully exempted, though U.S. import data shows none has been sourced from the UK in over 15 years.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3280, resistance levels come in at 1.3450 and 1.3550. Support lies at 1.3160, followed by 1.3000 and 1.2960.

Silver Softens Near $32.50 as Risk Appetite Improves

Silver hovered around $32.50 Friday, easing from earlier highs as optimism around U.S.-UK trade progress and upcoming talks with China reduced precious metals demand. The Fed’s hold on interest rates and cautious tone also weighed on precious metals. Still, silver remains on track for a weekly gain.

Technically, resistance is seen at $33.80, followed by $34.20 and $34.85, while support levels are noted at $32.00, $31.40, and $30.20.